Serving spicy Thai politics

Who will win: A woman walking past electoral campaign posters in a photo from April. Thais go to the polls today but the numbers game might decide the next PM rather than which party wins the most seats. — AFP

ON paper, even before 52 million eligible Thai voters go to the polls today, the military-backed political parties seemingly have won.

General Prawit Wongsuwan – one of the leaders of the 2014 military coup that seized power from an elected government – heads the Palang Pracharat party and might become prime minister even though his party probably will not win the most seats in the polls.

Who will be prime minister is decided by 750 lawmakers: 500 MPs who will be elected today and 250 appointed senators. The military junta appointed those 250 senators.

This means the Palang Pracharat party and its allies only need to win 125 seats (from the 400 constituencies that will elect their MPs and 100 party-list MPs).

The maths is simple: 250 appointed senators + 125 elected MPs = 375 lawmakers, a simple majority.

Whereas the military’s main rival parties, Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party, need to win 375 seats of the 500 as they are unlikely to get the support of the 250 senators for their prime minister candidates.

Recently, I was in Bangkok for som tam (green papaya salad), the Thai Hot Guys show (those cross-dressing Thai hunks banned from performing in Kuala Lumpur), and politics. The talk among my political contacts is that Pheu Thai will likely win the most seats, followed by the Move Forward Party.

Pheu Thai is linked to Thaksin Shina-watra and his sister, Yingluck, both of whom were ousted as prime ministers in coups, in 2006 and 2014 respectively. The party is currently the frontrunner in the polls and it has won every Thai election since 2001.

But winning the most seats doesn’t guarantee a party the chance to form the government in Thailand because those unelected senators appointed by the junta also decide who will be the PM.

The Move Forward Party is something like Malaysia’s Muda party: it has young, dynamic leaders and a voter base that’s mostly below 40 years old. However, unlike Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman’s Muda which only won one seat in Malaysia’s 15th General Election in 2022, the Move Forward Party is expected to get the second highest number of seats after Pheu Thai.

Palang Pracharat is predicted to come in third.

The United Thai Nation Party will likely crash and burn in these polls. It is a new party established by current Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha after he had a falling out with fellow coup leader Gen Prawit. Gen Prayuth was the army chief who seized power from Yingluck’s government in 2014.

The most likely scenario after the votes are counted is that Palang Pracharat, the United Thai National Party, and their allies, such as Democrat and Bhumjaithai, will form a coalition government, with Gen Prawit as the likely prime minister. Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party, even if they win the most and second-most seats, will be in the Opposition.

The other possible scenario is Pheu Thai and military-backed parties like Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation Party form a coalition government.

The whispered talk in Bangkok is that the powers-that-be prefer a party with the most number of MPs to be a part of the government as this would offer some legitimacy. Also, the opinion seems to be that Pheu Thai is the best party to steer the kingdom out of its current economic slump. The country’s economy boomed when billionaire Thaksin was the prime minister from 2001 to 2006.

Those mysterious and influential powers-that-be want Palang Pracarath/United Thai Nation Party to combine with Pheu Thai to form a government that has both pro-monarchy and pro-military parties in it. These hidden hands in Thai politics, which most Thais only dare to whisper about, don’t want the Move Forward Party to be in government.

Perhaps that’s because this party is galvanising young urban voters against the establishment – both the monarchy and military. One of the Move Foward Party’s anti-establishment crusades is to revise Article 112 of Thailand’s Criminal Code, which carries a prison term of up to 15 years if a person is found guilty of insulting the monarchy.

There is a slim chance that Pheu Thai will form a coalition government with the Move Forward Party and other smaller parties if they can put together 375 seats. If this happens, there is a likelihood that another Shinawatra will become prime minister.

In a countrywide survey by the Nation media group, Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn, who is with the Pheu Thai party, is neck-and-neck with Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat as the favourite to be Thailand’s next PM.

Recently, Pita jumped ahead of Paetong-tarn with 29.37% support versus 27.55%. Current Prime Minister Prayut received an 8.85% rating.

The feeling I get is that most Thai voters want a civilian to become prime minister, but will the kingdom decide on a general again? Thai politics is pet mak mak (very, very spicy), just like som tum and Hot Thai Guys.