Of sackings and suspensions

“UNBOWED, unbent, unbroken” is the motto of House Martell of Dorne in the television series Game of Thrones. The fiercely independent ruling family never bowed or bent a knee to anyone and never broke in combat.

“Unbowed, unbent, unbroken” is also what Khairy Jamaluddin tweeted after Umno sacked its former youth chief on Friday night.

The phrase has ignited the imagination of Malaysians on social media and messaging apps. Many have expressed shock that Umno expelled the one leader who they feel could reform/rebrand the party successfully.

In Umno’s version of a bloodless “Red Wedding” (during which Robb Stark and his bannermen were massacred in GoT), the party expelled Khairy and Tan Sri Noh Omar, an Umno warlord in Selangor, and suspended for six years Sembrong MP Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein and former Umno information chief Shahril Hamdan.

The official reason for these moves is a “mass cleansing” to eliminate “saboteurs” in Umno. For Umno leaders who support the decisions, it is a necessary as the party needs to “surgically” remove what it calls a “cancerous tumour” from its midst.

But it was not exactly a “mass cleansing” as Umno has not taken any action against party MPs and assemblymen who defied its president when they supported Gabungan Rakyat Sabah chairman Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor to remain as Sabah Chief Minister.

What’s the unofficial reason for all these sacking and suspensions then?

When a leader feels threatened, he resorts to sacking, right? Umno’s results in the 15th General Election (GE15) in 2022 was historically its worst ever – it won only 26 parliamentary seats. It lost in all the parliamentary constituencies it contested in Kedah, Kelantan, Melaka, Penang, Perlis, Selangor and Terengganu.

As a president who led the party in its worst-ever general election performance, it certainly seemed justifiable that party leaders would challenge Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi for his post. Even though delegates at the party’s annual general assembly earlier this month decided that there would be no contests for the president and deputy president posts, there is still a chance that the Registrar of Society could reverse the decision.

The possible contenders for the top post are Khairy and Hishammuddin.

I believe sacking Khairy and suspending Hishammuddin is also a way for Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid to show Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim that he is in control of Umno.

Will Umno be stronger or weaker after this Red Wedding?

Judging by GE15 results, the party did not fare well when it did not field warlords such as Datuk Seri Dr Shahidan Kassim in Perlis, Noh Omar in Selangor, and Tan Sri Annuar Musa in Kelantan. Eventually, the party sacked all three.

The test of whether Umno has been strengthened by all these sackings and suspensions, and by joining forces with Pakatan Harapan to help form the Unity Government, will lie in the upcoming state elections in Kedah, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor and Terengganu.

Among the six states, Umno only won parliamentary seats in Negri Sembilan. The state polls there will probably be a fight between party strongman Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, who is an Umno deputy president, and Khairy, who was Rembau MP until Mohamad took the seat from him in GE15.

With Ahmad Zahid remaining as Umno president, can the party truly rebrand itself? In GE15, voters largely rejected Umno purportedly because they didn’t like the fact that he is facing corruption charges. Pakatan capitalised on this reluctance with a campaign saying that a vote for Umno was a vote for Ahmad Zahid to be PM, while Perikatan Nasional told voters that it was cleaner than “kleptocracy Umno”.

The conventional wisdom is that when a political party has a weak leader, it will remain weak.

So what’s next for Khairy and Hishammuddin?

Since he has been sacked rather than suspended, Khairy has several options, such as joining another party or forming a new one or standing as an Independent in the next state election. But Hishammuddin is stuck in Hotel California (“You can check out any time you like/But you can never leave”, goes the Eagles’ classic).

The Sembrong MP could quit Umno – but if he does, he will lose his parliamentary seat. Or he could pull a Tan Sri Shahrir Abdul Samad manoeuvre: In a fight against then Umno president Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Sharir quit his Johor Baru parliamentary seat in 1988 to show that he was confident he had voters’ support, and won the seat back in the by-election when he ran as an Independent.

Hishammuddin could do the same: test his popularity in Sembrong and see if Umno is still relevant there.

The sacked Umno leaders should take inspiration from their party’s history. Three leaders, Dr Mahathir, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Anwar, were sacked by the party at different points and they all went on to become prime minister.

Tun Hussein Onn, Hishammuddin’s father, quit Umno, rejoined it, and eventually became PM. And former prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Khairy’s father-in-law, was sacked as Defence minister before later taking the top post.

Khairy could also do a Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal: When Umno suspended vice-president Shafie in 2016, he quit the party, formed Parti Warisan Sabah, and eventually became Sabah Chief Minister. Following along those lines, Khairy could start a new party and try to win Negri Sembilan.

The other option for Khairy and Hishammuddin is to stay cool and relax. Ahmad Zahid seems rather insecure in his position so who’s to say he’s going hang on to his presidency.

I don’t think it’s a big deal at all to be sacked or suspended by a weak party leader. It would be different if party members are removed by a powerful president who is also prime minister, like Dr Mahathir, who, for example, set Anwar’s political career back by 25 years when he sacked his then deputy prime minister.

Ahmad Zahid is not a prime minister. He is a Deputy Prime Minister whose portfolio is not one of the key ones like Finance or the Home Ministry. Can he remain “unbowed, unbent, unbroken”?