How can Umno course correct?

Challenger? Could Hishamuddin (right) be positioning himself to take the top post in party elections? — Filepics/The Star

BEFORE nomination day, the 15th General Election (GE15) was for Barisan Nasional to win. Not win outright, perhaps, but the coalition was projected to win 80-plus seats out of the 222 seats in Parliament.

The government of coalitions then was projected to be Barisan plus Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) plus Parti Warisan plus Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

But after nomination day on Nov 5, it became obvious that the Barisan campaign – to be exact, Umno – was in trouble.

In the first week of campaigning, when I was being asked in several WhatsApp groups who would win the polls, I began sending a standard two-sentence reply: “BN in trouble. PH rising and PN gaining.”

(BN is Barisan, which consists of Umno, MCA, MIC and PBRS; PH is Pakatan Harapan, comprising PKR, DAP, Amanah and Upko; and PN is Perikatan Nasional, made up of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, PAS and Gerakan.)

In the second week, I updated my response with: “BN in big trouble. PH is rising and rising and PN gaining at the expense of Umno.”

The information on the ground and from pollsters was that Paka-tan would win the most seats but it wouldn’t be enough to form the government. The big surprise was that Perikatan was forecast to get the second highest number of seats, and Barisan was trailing in third.

I believed Umno was in big trouble because of:

1. Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s leadership, or rather, lack of leadership.

2. The internal fight between Ahmad Zahid and party warlords who were sacked or dropped as candidates.

3. The fact that voters did not want Ahmad Zahid, who is facing a slew of corruption charges, to be prime minister. And Pakatan’s most well-known narrative at the time, related to popular candidate Khairy Jamaluddin, was: “A vote for Khairy is a vote for Zahid to be PM”.

4. The fact that voters in Malay-majority seats perceived Umno to be “dirty” while PAS and Bersatu were considered “cleaner”.

5. The war chests – Umno was not as “loaded” as Bersatu.

6. Urban and semi-urban voters loved the “Pakatan chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for PM” narrative (and were terrified of Ahmad Zahid or Perikatan chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin becoming PM).

7. Barisan’s narrative that a vote for it was a vote for stability was overwhelmed by the red wave (Pakatan’s flag colour) and the green wave (PAS’s colour).

8. The fact that there was no nationwide campaign by the two top Umno leaders – caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob was stuck in his Bera constituency, and party president Ahmad Zahid in Bagan Datuk. Arguably, a “Bossku” kind of leadership campaign by jailed former PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak could have galvanised support from Umno’s traditional base.

Umno got trashed in GE15. It was its worst ever performance as it won only 26 seats. Even when the Barisan government fell in 2018, Umno managed to win 54 constituencies.

So who is to be blamed for Umno’s worst ever performance?

If you look at points 1, 2, 3 and 8, they point to the party president.

“The buck stops here”, goes the phrase popularised by US Presi-dent Harry S. Truman. It refers to the notion that the president makes the decisions and accepts the ultimate responsibility for them.

But Umno doesn’t seem to think so.

Four days after the Nov 19 defeat, some 130 Umno division chiefs voiced their support for Ahmad Zahid to remain party president.

“We want a united Umno as we only won 30 seats,” said Wangsa Maju Umno division chief Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Shafei Abdullah, referring to Barisan’s 30 seats.

“We will be facing a disastrous future if we do not unite,” said the spokesman for the “solidarity for president” gathering.

Unlike Najib, who quit as Umno president to take responsibility for the party’s historic defeat in GE14 in 2018, Ahmad Zahid remains in the top post.

Eventually, as Barisan chairman, he pledged the support of the coalition’s 30 MPs for Anwar to be Prime Minister. Despite Pakatan campaigning against penyamun (bandit) from becoming the PM, Anwar appointed Ahmad Zahid to the second most powerful post in his Cabinet, Deputy Prime Minister.

But is it solely Ahmad Zahid’s fault that Umno only won 26 seats and got wiped out in Kedah, Kelantan, Melaka, Penang, Perlis, Selangor and Terengganu?

Let’s rewind and play the what-if game.

What if then prime minister Ismail Sabri called for snap elections immediately after the Johor polls? Umno and Barisan were on a winning streak in Johor and Melaka state polls, in both of which Barisan won big.

But Ismail Sabri did not adhere to the party’s wishes for GE15 to be called as soon as possible. Instead, the Umno vice-president delayed, giving Pakatan, especially PKR, time to rebuild after the big defeats in Johor, Melaka and Sarawak state elections.

What if Umno had not been divided between those who wanted it to go solo (as Barisan) in GE15 and those who wanted to cooperate with Perikatan (comprising Bersatu and PAS)? Would Umno have gone into the elections as a united team?

But that is the past. The political reality is Umno is now the third choice among its traditional electorate. PAS and Bersatu (now Umno 2.0) are the parties of choice among conservative Malay voters.

Also, Umno needs to rebrand itself after embracing its long-time bogeyman, DAP. It can no longer use the narrative that a vote for Umno is a vote to defend Malays from DAP, which is pro – you fill in the blank – communist, Jews or Christians. Now, PAS and Bersatu have taken over that narrative.

Is Ahmad Zahid the right man to lead Umno on a quest to return to its glory days when it was the one party that ruled them all? Team Zahid’s narrative is that the Umno president “saved” the party as it is still in power with top leaders in the Cabinet.

But what is good for Ahmad Zahid might not be good for Umno. What is good for Umno might not be good for Ahmad Zahid.

With his DPM post and the power of incumbency, it looks like nobody can defeat Ahmad Zahid in the party poll that must be called within six months after GE15.

So far, no challenger has emerged.

On Thursday, Sembrong Umno MP Datuk Seri Hishamuddin Hussein released a cryptic video on Twitter and Facebook: “Barisan Nasional lost terribly in the 15th General Election. It only won 30 seats. The results must serve as a wake-up call, especially to those in Umno and Barisan. There is a lot of work to do if we want to restore the people’s confidence. We cannot afford a misstep anymore,” he said.

On Nov 21, Hishamuddin said he was willing to be sacked from Umno for rejecting cooperation with Pakatan. He also refused to support Anwar as the PM candidate. The politician, who was once seen as destined to be party president, said since he is less busy than before, he would spend time rejuvenating the party.

Is it a hint from Hishamuddin that he is going for the party’s top post? Is he the answer to rectifying Umno’s missteps under Ahmad Zahid?