Rumour has it

Talk about when the 15th General Election will take place is getting wilder and more speculative than ever.

“The talk is Budget 2023 will not be tabled and Parliament will be dissolved on Thursday,” was the often repeated rumour earlier this week.

Many Malaysians were quoting “insiders” confirming that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob would announce the dissolution after meeting the King on Thursday.

The rumour sounded believable. But I was cautious because it seemed like the tale was taking on a life of its own – the public, even “insiders”, was hearing the same story, repeating and amplifying it.

Well, as we all know, Budget 2023 was tabled on Friday, and there was no dissolution.

But that doesn’t end the rumours.

The next one is dissolution will be next week, around Oct 12.

Will Parliament really be dissolved next week to pave the way for the 15th General Election (GE15)?

I checked with my Umno contacts, and opinion is divided. One group believes that vice-president Ismail Sabri will adhere to his party’s wish for a snap poll and the other is convinced that he will stay on for a full term.

The first group believes the PM received the King’s consent to dissolve Parliament when he met His Majesty on Thursday. They expect the PM to announce dissolution anytime next week.

They are in a festive mood in Umno WhatsApp groups, as if GE15 has already been called.

“Everything is going according to plan. We are following the timetable [for dissolution],” an Umno insider told me.

However, the second group is not convinced.

They will only believe that GE15 is on when they see it in black and white. They’ve already waited since March when the PM promised during the Umno general assembly that he wouldn’t delay calling for GE15 “for even a second” if the party was ready.

They also calculated that the window to seek the King’s consent has closed as Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah will leave for London tonight for a working visit until Oct 16.

It is crucial for Umno for Parliament to be dissolved by Oct 15 as they are targeting polling for GE15 to be held by Nov 15, just before the monsoon season starts. After Oct 15, it might not be possible to call for elections because flooding is expected in some parts of the country.

After Ismail Sabri met the King on Thursday, he had a meeting with the rest of the Umno top five immediately at Umno headquarters in Kuala Lumpur. The top five are Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan and vice-presidents Ismail Sabri, Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin and Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid.

It seems the PM informed them of “good news”. After the meeting, Ahmad Zahid asked Umno members, especially those anxious that Parliament had not been dissolved yet, for a “ceasefire” on attacks against Ismail Sabri.

But what happens if there is no dissolution by Wednesday?

Umno leadership will definitely be furious if GE15 is not called this year. The big question is whether they would do to Ismail Sabri what they did to Pasir Salak MP Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman.

On Oct 1, Umno suspended Tajudddin – who has been seen as pro-Ismail Sabri and not in favour of GE15 this year – for six years.

The party also suspended Alor Setar division chief Datuk Mohd Yusof Ismail for six years. And it sacked blogger and former Bandar Tun Razak Umno division secretary Datuk Zaharin Mohd Yasin.

Will Umno dare to suspend or sack an Umno Prime Minister?

If it happens, it will be unprecedented. The political playbook would need to be rewritten as Umno would be in the Opposition against the Prime Minister, who will be without a party.

Will Perikatan Nasional, which has 12 ministers (from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and PAS) in the Cabinet, support Ismail Sabri as PM? Will Pakatan Harapan, led by PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim who has been PM-in-waiting since the 1990s, stand by the Prime Minister?

Or will Perikatan and Pakatan go for the political jugular?

Next week – perhaps not on Monday as it is a public holiday – we will be flooded by even more rumours that the dissolution of Parliament is imminent. Brace yourself for messages from “insiders” confirming GE15 is on.