For show or for real?

IN politics, loyalty is relative.

Some politicians are loyal only to their self-interest. So loyalty shifts when these politicians must align themselves with people who can promote their self-interest.

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Tan Sri Muhyiddin wants Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri to continue as Prime Minister until next year; his term ends in July 2023. However, Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi wants the Prime Minister to call for the dissolution of Parliament and a general election as soon as possible.

Who will Ismail Sabri align himself with: someone who wants him to be Prime Minister until next year or someone who wants to cut short his tenure?

Time is on the side of the Prime Minister. Except for pressure from Umno to call for snap polls, Ismail Sabri can afford to delay the decision to dissolve Parliament.

It’s the same with Muhyiddin. He has time on his hands as Bersatu is not in a hurry to face the ballot boxes.

However, time is running out for the Umno president. Ahmad Zahid’s timetable is determined by the courts, where he is facing 87 corruption charges. Soon he’ll know at least one verdict in the cases currently going through the courts. If he is found guilty, there is a possibility that Umno will force him to step aside as president.

On Sept 11, the Prime Minister laid out the steps he would take to determine the date of the 15th General Election (GE15). Ismail Sabri will first discuss the matter with the rest of Umno’s top leaders. Apart from him, they are Ahmad Zahid, deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan and Sabri’s fellow vice-presidents Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin and Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid. They are scheduled to meet on Sept 30.

After that, the Prime Minister will talk to Barisan Nasional component parties, which comprise MCA, MIC and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah, in addition to Umno.

Then a decision has to be presented to the Cabinet because under the Constitution, he must get the Cabinet’s approval before he goes to the Yang diPertuan Agong, Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah, to get his consent for Parliament to be dissolved, Ismail Sabri explained.

Interestingly, most Constitutional experts agree that the Prime Minister is not required to consult his Cabinet under the Constitution. Previous prime ministers kept the dissolution date to themselves. Arguably, it will be the first time a Malaysian Prime Minister goes through the steps outlined by Ismail Sabri.

Obviously, the Prime Minister feels there are stakeholders he cannot ignore when it comes to determining when his term ends.

This, to me, raises the question: Who will ultimately decide the date of Parliament’s dissolution, Umno or Bersatu?

It is naive of Umno to believe that it has the power to do so just because the Prime Minister is from the party. It is an old idea anchored in the thoughts of many of its leaders and members.

Umno fails to understand – or is overlooking – the fact that Ismail Sabri is the Prime Minister of the Malaysian Family government, which consists of Barisan, Perikatan Nasional (Bersatu, PAS, Sabah Star, SAPP and Gerakan), Gabungan Parti Sarawak, smaller parties, and independent MPs.

Umno president Ahmad Zahid is the chairman of Barisan, while Bersatu president Muhyiddin is the chairman of Perikatan.

Ahmad Zahid seems to be unaware of the concept of ownership and control. Even though it is an Ismail Sabri Cabinet, the key question arises in the context of ownership and control. Does it lie in the hands of one person? To what extent does Bersatu exert control on Cabinet decisions?

Ahmad Zahid and Umno believe they made Ismail Sabri PM, whereas Muhyiddin and Bersatu are convinced they were the ones that did so.

But what is essential is what Ismail Sabri thinks and believes, because that will determine his ultimate allegiance. Who should the Prime Minister align himself with if he wants to prolong his political career?

The other intriguing question is who controls Bersatu: Muhyiddin or Pejuang chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad – although Pejuang isn’t a part of Bersatu, the old man of politics still wields considerable influence.

The question of when GE15 will be held should be pondered within a broader context while considering Bersatu’s place.

In Malaysian politics, sometimes, what you see is not what you get. What you see is wayang (a show).

For example, the wayang can be that two parties are fighting over the deputy prime minister post. Or at least they want opponents thinking they are in conflict, whereas they are actually cooperating.

Is the fight between Ismail Sabri and Muhyiddin over the Prime Minister’s supposed promise to appoint someone from Bersatu as the deputy prime minister a wayang or for real?

Another example of a wayang is politicians saying that their party has no clusters and or a civil war.

They say all their members are cooperating, whereas they are actually in conflict.

Umno leaders have told the media that the party is not divided. Really?

Who will decide on the eventual dissolution of Parliament? Umno’s top five leaders? The Cabinet? Or an unseen hand?