Ultimatums and U-turns

Men with dates on their minds: Will Ismail Sabri (right) give in to pressure from Umno led by Ahmad Zahid to call for a general election as soon as possible? What would Umno do if he doesn’t? — RAJA FAISAL HISHAN/AZMAN GHANI/The Star

THE what-ifs of Malaysian politics currently depend primarily on the political war of attrition between the Prime Minister and Umno.

What if Umno loses patience with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s promise that the 15th General Election (GE15) will be held “as soon as possible”?

At the Umno general assembly in March this year, Ismail Sabri, a party vice-president, promised he wouldn’t delay calling for GE15 “for even a second” if the party was ready. That “second” has turned into months.

Judging by the response from the more than 1,000 party members during the Umno special briefing at the World Trade Centre in Kuala Lumpur on Aug 27, they want GE15 now.

What can Umno do if Parliament is not dissolved this month or next?

It can do what it has been doing, which is not to give the Prime Minister an ultimatum in the vein of “dissolve at X date” or else. It means the timing of “as soon as possible” will remain hanging. And Ismail Sabri might even serve a full term as Prime Minister, which is till July 2023.

But what if Umno gives Ismail Sabri a date to seek the King’s consent for the dissolution of Parliament?

There are two possibilities.

The Prime Minister abides by his party’s ultimatum. Which would mean GE15 is on this year.

Or Ismail Sabri can defy his party’s wishes. In which case, what can Umno do?

For Umno, the worst case scenario is taking action against the Prime Minister. Umno could suspend or sack Ismail Sabri.

This scenario is not as uncommon as you would think in Umno’s history.

In 1998, Umno expelled deputy president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who was also deputy prime minister at the time. In 2016, it sacked deputy president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and suspended vice-president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal.

If Umno sacks the PM, the party will withdraw from the Ismail Sabri government.

The political permutations in this what-if scenario are endless.

How many of Umno’s 37 MPs will remain with the Prime Minister in his government?

What will the King do? Will the King say that hasrat rakyat (the people’s wish) is for a new mandate (ie, an election) or ask MPs to declare whether they support Ismail Sabri as Prime Minister or not?

Will the Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional MPs support the Prime Minister?

There are 90 Pakatan MPs: DAP 42, PKR 36, Amanah 11 and Upko one; and 47 Perikatan MPs: Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) 29, PAS 17 and Sabah Star one.

Or will they be like political vultures circling wounded prey?

Remember the Sheraton Move?

(For those who don’t: The fall of the Pakatan coalition government after 22 months in power in February 2020 was dubbed the Sheration Move as those plotting gathered at the Sheraton Petaling Jaya Hotel.)

When Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, then Bersatu chairman, resigned as prime minister on Feb 24, 2020, the leaders of Bersatu’s allies in Pakatan, which were PKR, DAP and Amanah, vowed to support Mahathir to continue to be PM.

At an emergency Pakatan Harapan Presidential Council meeting, then DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng said the party would continue nominating Mahathir as the prime minister.

But when the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah, met face-to-face with MPs individually to determine who commanded the confidence of the majority, PKR, DAP and Amanah had a change of mind.

They supported PKR president Anwar instead. Dr Mahathir lost the vote and Anwar could not get enough support to become prime minister.

In the second round to determine who had the majority in Parliament, the King met the political party leaders. PKR, DAP and Amanah made a U-turn. They gave up support for Anwar and backed Dr Mahahtir. Eventually, Bersatu president Muhyiddin was deemed to have his peers’ support and was appointed prime minister.

This Sheration Move U-turn is a counterargument to politicians and political analysts who insist that Pakatan and Perikatan will support the Prime Minister even if Umno quits the Ismail Sabri government. They say the Opposition coalition will back Ismail Sabri with the memorandum of understanding that was signed between the Prime Minister and Pakatan.

If Ismail Sabri gets the support of the Perikatan and Pakatan MPs, how long can he remain as PM?

Will Umno, as an Opposition party, be too weak to try to bring down the government as it did with PAS against the Pakatan government that came into power after 2018’s GE14?

Will Umno and its president, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, be “anak jantan” (as Ahmad Zahid likes to put it, meaning man enough or brave) enough to give the Prime Minister an ultimatum?