The prospect of zero wins

Ready, set...: Johor Election Commission staff preparing for nomination day as well as the upcoming state election. — THOMAS YONG/The Star

WHICH party will get zero seats in the Johor polls on March 12?

On Friday, the eve of nomination day yesterday, I had a WhatsApp chat with a political operative who is on the ground in Johor about which party will not win a single seat in the state elections.

Our list is similar: Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), Parti Warisan, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), PSM, PAS and Gerakan. Pejuang is contesting in 42 seats out of the 56 that make up the Johor assembly, Parti Warisan six, PBM four, PSM one, PAS 15 and Gerakan eight.

To check whether our predictions have some basis in facts, I contacted two pollsters on the ground in Johor: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia politics and governance research group head Dr Mazlan Ali and Ilham Centre’s Prof Hamidin Abdul Hamid.

In separate conversations, the two pollsters and I went through the list of parties (in no particular order) likely to lose all the seats they contested.

Pejuang: “It will be difficult for it to win as it is going solo. Mahathir is not popular in Johor from my survey,” said Mazlan, referring to Pejuang chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

“I don’t see a strong effort from Pejuang in Johor. I give them chances in three seats. For example, Jorak, because the incumbent assemblyman, Datuk Dr Shahruddin Md Salleh, is not defending his seat. Instead, he is being fielded in Machap,” said Prof Hamidin.

“The best chance for Pejuang is in Kempas where Nornekman Osman is contesting in the seat held previously by his father, the late Johor mentri besar, Datuk Osman Sapian,” said the prof.

Warisan: “It will not win a single seat. It is a Sabah party – what is its platform when it contests in Johor? What is its struggle?” said Mazlan.

“In Johorean politics, people are for Barisan Nasional or other established coalitions, like Pakatan Harapan. If Warisan joined a coalition or formed an electoral pact, it would have been different. It can’t win any seats by going solo.”

“Warisan doesn’t have any base in Johor. It is too early for them to jump into national polls. It is similar to PBM, which depends on the area it contests. PBM can win some votes, but they can’t get the PKR vote base,” said Prof Hamidin.

PBM: “Even though (PBM senior vice president and Tebrau MP Steven) Choong is contesting in a state seat under his MP constituency, he won’t have an edge as he won in GE14 (14th General Election in 2018) as a PKR and Pakatan candidate,” said the Ilham pollster.

“No chance at all. The party is like Warisan. It is too new. People see it as splitting from Bersatu. The voters do not know its objectives,” said Mazlan, indicating that PBM’s “Great Reset 2030” slogan is not known yet to the public.

PSM: “It goes without saying – they can’t win. Malaysian voters are not ideologically driven. The socialist party still want to run under an ideological point, so it is very difficult to connect with the people. Malaysian voters culturally and socially are pragmatists rather than ideologically-based,” said Prof Hamidin.

“Where is it contesting? It won’t be easy to win. Maybe it won’t lose its deposit,” said Mazlan.

PAS: “It is contesting under Perikatan, and it has a chance to win even though the coalition is an underdog. My recent survey in Johor showed that Muhyiddin is popular with Malays,” said Mazlan, referring to Perikatan Nasional chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

“PAS can win one or two seats, or nearly win seats. But it won’t have enough support to wrest away Malay seats from Umno,” he said.

“It has a chance to win some seats, like Tenggaroh. That’s a Felda seat, and Perikatan has put up a PAS candidate against one from MIC (of Barisan). If the sentiment is not with MIC, it would be tough for the MIC candidate to defend the seat,” said Prof Hamidin.

Gerakan: “From my research, the Chinese in Johor are not solid in its support for DAP. The Chinese voters are open – MCA and Gerakan could get their vote. I give Gerakan a 50/50 chance of winning a seat,” said Mazlan.

“It will be tough for Gerakan,” said Prof Hamidin.

Amanah: “Amanah could win several seats as it is in a coalition with DAP and PKR, and it also has an electoral pact with Muda,” said Mazlan.

“Don’t be surprised if Amanah doesn’t win anything. When we crunch the numbers and go to the ground, it is worrying for the party. The voters who supported it in GE14 were Malays who were not with PAS and not satisfied with Umno. But now these Malay voters are going for Perikatan (and not Pakatan),” said Prof Hamidin.

The two pollsters had also researched a party not on my list, the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda): “Muda has a chance to win a few seats. It has an electoral pact with Pakatan although no cooperation with PKR,” said Mazlan.

(Muda’s pact with Pakatan involves only DAP and Amanah from the coalition while it will contest against PKR, the coalition’s other member, in Larkin.)

“The Pakatan votes could go to it by pulling in the Undi18 segment and outsider voters. Syed Saddiq is an icon for youth,” he said, referring to Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman.

“The only seat Muda has a chance to win is Puteri Wangsa, an urban seat. But it is too early for Muda to contest in an election. They need more time to make an impact. Barisan will do better there (Puteri Wangsa) – MCA will perform better,” said Prof Hamidin.

What are the consequences if a party fails to win a seat in Johor?

“They will evaluate for GE15 that they need to be in a coalition with either Barisan, Perikatan or Pakatan. Muda is clever. It knows it needs an electoral pact with a coalition to win any seats,” said Mazlan.

“Most of them will realise they can’t stand alone. It would then be much easier to bring them into a coalition. Most of these parties are ‘shiok sendiri’ (self-indulgent) right now. When reality hits them, they will know they need others. It will open up more possibilities of negotiation and give and take to be part of a coalition,” said Prof Hamidin.

“The loss will threaten their confidence. For example, Pejuang is confidently going for 42 seats. They must remember that when they won in Johor before they were part of Pakatan,” said Mazlan, referring to Pejuang leaders who were with Bersatu during GE14 when Bersatu was part of the Opposition alliance, Pakatan.

“Is Pejuang thinking that the momentum of Mahathir was like in GE14? From my surveys, Mahathir currently is not a leader who is admired in Johor.”

So, which party do you think will get zero seats in Johor on March 12, dear reader? Let me know at twitter.com/PhilipGolingai or facebook.com/philip.golingai.