Busy run-up to polling day

Mentri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi may not be a candidate in this by-election, but he has been actively working on the ground in Pulai and Simpang Jeram.

He has been travelling up and down these two places, which are at least two hours’ drive apart, having meetings and discussions with local leaders and voters to ensure that Pakatan Harapan’s Pulai candidate, Suhaizan Kayat, can win.

While he has hardly had any press conferences or statements about the by-elections, Onn Hafiz has been working hard behind the scenes to urge Umno members to come out and vote for Pakatan.

The pace of campaigning has heated up, with polling day inching closer to Saturday.

Perikatan Nasional leaders are using every tactic they can to score points with the voters, including using 3R (race, religion and royalty) issues and even declaring that it was “haram”, or forbidden, in Islam to vote for Pakatan.

Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad even went so far as to say “parti pendatang” (migrant parties) wanted more power and to challenge the Malay dominance in the country.

Such views have not gone down well with Umno leaders, who are now working hard, including releasing videos, to dispel the narrative claiming that Umno has now merged with DAP under the unity government.

Down to the wire: Pakatan and Perikatan parties are making their final push for their candidates as Saturday approaches. — THOMAS YONG/The Star

A local Umno leader said the party has a daunting task as at least 30% of the voters are still undecided about casting their ballots for the Pakatan candidate.

Johor Umno information chief Datuk Md Jais Sarday said Perikatan wants to frighten the Malays into believing that they would lose power in the country if they supported the unity government.

“Umno did not merge with DAP. We are in Barisan, which comprises Umno, MCA and MIC. DAP is in Pakatan together with Amanah and PKR.

“This unity government comprises 19 parties, including Barisan, Pakatan and parties from Sabah and Sarawak,” he added.

Umno leaders are asking hardcore party members not to kill Umno by voting for Perikatan, as Umno was born in Johor, specifically at Istana Besar here.

The stakes are high for both sides. Perikatan is attempting to persuade voters in Pulai to reject the two-thirds majority that the Barisan/Pakatan unity government currently holds in Parliament.

The unity government pact currently holds 148 out of 222 parliamentary seats.

In past by-elections, the voter turnout was usually about 60% plus, which is much lower than the 70% plus in any general election.

Both seats are mixed seats, with more than half comprising new or young voters. Pulai is an urban seat while Simpang Jeram is semi-urban.

Bread-and-butter issues such as the cost of living will have an impact on this by-election.

Also on the minds of the voters will be the court case involving Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

PAS Syura council member Datuk Dr Mahfodz Mohamed is hoping for a high Malay voter turnout of up to 80% for the party to win comfortably in both seats.

“We hope that this will be a referendum on the Pakatan government that the people are unhappy with the way they are running the country, especially on the issue of fighting corruption,” he said, adding that he expects the Ahmad Zahid court case to work in Perikatan’s favour.

Dr Mahfodz said even if Perikatan manages to bring down Pakatan’s majority in Pulai to less than half, that is a good win for the Opposition.

“Our ultimate aim is to win the seat,” he added.

Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, who died in July, had won in the past with a huge majority because of strong Chinese support.

Pakatan is working hard to ensure all its non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese, many of whom are employed in Singapore, come back to vote as it needs at least 70% to 75% of votes to hold on to the two seats.

In the Johor state election held in March last year, Salahuddin managed to defend the Simpang Jeram seat in a four-cornered fight, getting 8,749 votes with a 2,399 majority.

“This time, even if Pakatan manages to get half of these numbers, it’s already good enough,” said a PKR leader, adding that it was paramount that Pakatan win both seats with a high turnout of non-Malay voters.

However, political scientist Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali, who had earlier predicted that Pakatan had been expected to win, now feels that things are fluid and there has been a change of view after news of Ahmad Zahid’s court case on Monday.

“This will invoke strong voter sentiments, especially among the Malays, and they may throw their votes to Perikatan.

“It will be either 50/50 or Pakatan will lose Simpang Jeram,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), who is also predicting a similar outcome in Pulai.

The last moments during the campaigning would be an interesting one as Barisan, especially Umno, needs to double its efforts to get its voters to vote for the Pakatan candidate to show their commitment towards the unity government.

Mazlan also said this may be Umno’s last chance to show that the party is able to get the Malay grassroots to support the unity government in Johor.

Early voting for 927 people started on Tuesday, and the next 48 hours before polling day will be a critical time for both sides.

These two polls in Johor will be the state’s 28th by-election since 1955.