Over the past seven years, an air of political instability cast a shadow over Sabah’s government and the state’s direction.
There were at least two attempted political coups and hung election results. Major political parties manoeuvred to stay or grab power since the fall of the 25-year Sabah Barisan Nasional rule of the state in 2018.
Hopes were high among Sabahans for a decisive people’s mandate for political stability when they went to cast their votes in the 17th Sabah Election on Nov 29 last year.
But Sabahans delivered another hung assembly result, with the ruling four-party Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor winning 29 seats against his arch and bitter rival Warisan − led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal which gained 25 out of the 73 seats.
Amid a clear wave for local parties and state rights sentiments, national parties like Barisan dwindled from 14 to six seats and Pakatan Harapan’s PKR scraped through with a single seat while its partner DAP was wiped out as the final results came in the wee hours of Nov 30.
The big surprise was Perikatan Nasional’s PAS making its first electoral win in Sabah, taking the urban Karambunai seat as it benefitted from the major splits in votes by rivals Warisan, GRS and Barisan.
Native-based parties Upko, Sabah STAR and Parti KDM as well as five independents swept up the remaining 11 seats, setting the stage for another long-drawn political crisis and horse trading.
But, this did not happen.
By 3.05am (Nov 30), Sabah Governor Tun Musa Aman swore in Hajiji for his second term after GRS with its partner Pakatan cobbled a simple majority bringing in rivals Barisan and Upko before other opponents, including PAS and independents, came in to back the new “unity” coalition government.
The immediate composition of the unity government puts Hajiji and Sabah on stable political ground very much in line with the federal unity government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, leaving Shafie and Warisan to sit out in the state opposition benches.
The swift move in the formation of the state government with hung results even caught Anwar’s attention, who later remarked that he hoped the new state government would also carry out their work for the people “as fast as it was sworn in”.
Sensing the uneasiness among its political ranks, GRS information chief Datuk Joniston Bangkuai said that managing post-election dynamics must be guided by the interests of the people and the state’s stability to ensure the effective functioning of government administration.
“A mature political cooperation is necessary to ensure administrative stability.
“Without a stable foundation, the implementation of policies and development cannot proceed as planned,” said Joniston, Assistant Minister to the Chief Minister.
Political observers say Hajiji and GRS government have a second chance, having faced a strong challenge from his rivals who accused GRS of being a failed government mired in allegations of corruption among Cabinet members.
“Hajiji is now back on solid ground in terms of assemblymen support.
“He has to deliver quickly to strengthen GRS and his position within the next two years,” political analyst Rahezzal Shah said.
“People are fed up with mere talk.
“They want to see tangible results in terms of key issues, better known as Sabah’s three ills – water, electricity and roads.
“The people want to see solutions within the next six to 24 months. They don’t want to hear excuses or the blame game,” said Rahezzal, a senior lecturer at Sabah UiTM.
A key to Hajiji and GRS consolidating their position is a speedy deal for the state’s revenue rights.
Hajiji has to lock in an agreement with the Federal Government on Sabah’s 40% state revenue return rights within the next few months, said Rahezzal, who believes that it will strengthen GRS position ahead of the national election.
“The people’s view is that there have been enough discussions and negotiations since the time of the Warisan government from 2018 to 2020. Now there is a High Court ruling in the state’s favour.
“Many people want to see how much the GRS coalition government can secure in revenue from the Federal Government.”
Political observers see a fragile state government, expressing difficulty in predicting how political parties − including Warisan currently in the federal unity government − will realign before the general election due end of 2027.
They wonder whether GRS will go it alone in the general election or become part of a broader national coalition.
“The poor results of PKR and DAP in Sabah might tempt GRS to go in on their own,” Rahezzal said, adding that it could reshape alignments within the state GRS coalition.
The Anti-Hopping Law might keep assemblymen within their respective parties, but partners from smaller parties, independents and nominated assemblymen could swing or shift loyalty without losing their seats.
How Hajiji and GRS manage these parties could strengthen their position at the state level and play a crucial role in federal level.
Meanwhile, his rival Shafie might also toy with the idea of re-positioning Warisan for the national elections in a bid to get back the state government.
Rahezzal said there was too much grey area in federal politics presently, making it very difficult to predict the political dynamics within Pakatan and Perikatan, and possibilities of fresh alignments were real.
GRS could end up in a shaky position at state level if its current coalition partners re-aligned their positions.
Hajiji has put in place a comprehensive Sabah Maju Jaya development plan to strengthen its traditional agriculture, tourism and oil and gas economic base and opened up a blue economy.
But the measures failed to be felt by the people, particularly youths and ordinary folks growing frustrated by the lack of economic opportunities amid their daily frustrations over water and electricity supplies, healthcare shortages, poor road connectivity, and limited Internet access.
Hajiji and his GRS team have to push through their planned agendas quickly and firmly.
A week after the formation of his government, Hajiji announced a major revamp of state-owned government linked companies (GLCs), promising professional and results-driven leadership while threatening to shut down underperformers after five years of losses.
The announcement drew positive public feedback, but then immediately hit controversy when a former assemblyman facing corruption charges in court was appointed chairman of a major GLC.
Eyebrows were also raised over some of the chairman appointments for major GLCs that involved political leaders.
It raised questions regarding the Chief Minister’s will in revamping state GLCs via professionalism and accountability.
Since assuming office for the second term, Hajiji has kept a relatively low public profile and is working behind the scenes to balance political powers in his new alliance government.
Observers said it was not easy as he has to consider his own GRS political base while accommodating the needs of their new partners whose grassroots were at each other’s throats just two months ago.
Sabah’s political climate has calmed down for now.
GRS under Hajiji will have their window to deliver their promises, to fully strengthen their political hold in the state.
For the Land Below The Wind where there are always sudden political shifts that can take place at the drop of a hat, the question in everyone’s mind is whether the current political calm is before or after a storm.
