Duterte’s missed mandate

Strongman vibes: A trained lawyer, Duterte is deliberate, determined and deadly, knowing how to manipulate the law to his advantage.

ON Monday, Feb 10, Philippine Solicitor-General Jose Calida filed a “quo warranto” * petition against ABS-CBN, the republic’s most popular television station (with over 72.3 million weekly viewers and a 47% viewership share) as well as a perceived critic of President Rodrigo Duterte – in effect, attempting to force it off air.

The next day, Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr signed a notice terminating the republic’s Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States.

Many see the Philippine strongman as an erratic, Trump-like figure.

He is not.

He is deliberate, determined and deadly.

But time is running out for Duterte. The republic will soon be gearing up for the 2022 presidential polls for which the former Davao Mayor cannot stand (since the fall of Marcos in 1986, Philip-pine presidents can only hold office for one six-year term).

The question must be asked, has President Duterte squandered the chance to transform his nation? While the economy is chugging along very well (5.9% GDP growth in 2019 according to the World Bank) his all-important “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme is moving far too slowly.

Has Duterte wasted his immense 2016 electoral mandate and personal popularity (87% as of December 2019 according to the pollsters Pulse Asia)? Has the pursuit of personal enemies such as ABS-CBN, kicking out the Americans, and pivoting to China distracted Malacanang?

Investment from China has been pitifully small – and nothing like the US$9bil (RM37.3bil) he promised back in 2016. Indeed, the proliferation of shady online Chinese gaming businesses in the republic has led to popular backlash among ordinary Filipinos.

Certainly, Duterte has never hidden his obsessions. His dislike of ABS-CBN and the much-storied Lopez family who control the publicly listed TV station was well known. Similarly, with the United States. In both cases his animus runs deep.

Full disclosure: my Ceritalah column is syndicated with ABS-CBN and I have appeared many times on Headstart, the station’s early morning news show whose lead news anchor Karen Davila (a good friend) terrorises all her guests with equal vigour.

Still, the former Davao mayor’s relentless pursuit of ABS-CBN combined with his administration’s attacks on the online news portal rappler.com (run by former CNN anchor Maria Ressa) and newspaper Philippine Daily Inquirer underlines his disregard for media freedoms and the critical importance of checks and balances to executive power.

The Solicitor-General claims that ABS-CBN has engaged in “highly abusive practices”, including allegedly violating foreign ownership caps. For the record, media companies in the Philippines must be 100% locally owned.

The move against the United States is even more dramatic, signalling the end to a checkered 120-year-long shared history.

The VFA allowed American troops to be rotated into the Philippines for humanitarian assistance and military exercises. The two countries have other treaties, including the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty and the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement - but both are moot without the VFA.

To be sure, Duterte has always been anti-American. As Davao mayor, he was reported to have been angered by a 2002 incident where US agents controversially extricated an American, who allegedly detonated an explosive device in a local hotel, before authorities had a chance to interrogate the man.

As president, Duterte famously said that he was “separating” from the United States – the Philippines’ former colonial master – and seeking closer ties with China and Russia instead.

But defence cooperation with the Americans, facilitated by the VFA, continued.

However, the US visa of a former policeman-turned senator ally of Duterte’s, Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, was cancelled supposedly because of the latter’s involvement in the Duterte’s bloody “War on Drugs”.

Duterte – already seething at US criticism over the drug “war” and other issues – vowed to cancel, and then went ahead with the cancellation of, the VFA, which will lapse in 180 days.

The VFA matters not only because it acts as a deterrent to Chinese aggression in the region. The United States also helps provide training and technical assistance to the Philippine military, including during the 2017 Marawi siege.

Duterte also claims that cancelling the VFA strengthens Philippine sovereignty and independence.

But he has been deafeningly silent on the South China/West Philippine Sea issue.

And as Secretary Locsin conceded in his testimony to the Philippine Senate, “Terminating the VFA will negatively impact the Philippines’ defence and security arrangements”. He also noted that the United States is the Philippines third-largest trading partner (valued at US$8.7bil, or RM36bil), its biggest export market, the fifth-largest source of investment (12.9bil Philipine pesos, or RM1bil) and third-largest source of tourism (one million arrivals in 2018).

Moreover, Duterte’s actions jeopardise the interests of the 3.3 million-strong Philippine diaspora in the United States who contribute to 36.8% of the Philippine’s remittances – the highest source country. What about the 1.2 million Filipinos who work in business process outsourcing – many of whom are employed by American firms?

Philippine presidents only have one chance. Duterte may well have missed his.

* According to rappler.com, the petition accuses ABS-CBN of unlawfully exercising its franchise by allegedly offering paid broadcasts without government approval and by allegedly allowing foreign ownership of the corporation. Section 1(c), Rule 66 of the Philippine’s Rules of Court says a quo warranto petition can be filed against “an association which acts as a corporation within the Philippines without being legally incorporated or without lawful authority so to act.”