LIKE it or not, Malaysians will most probably see Donald Trump at the 47th Asean Summit at the end of this month.
“I am 98% sure Trump will be coming,” said a senior official.
The United States is one of the 11 Asean dialogue partners, and like previous Asean summits, its president would have been invited to join other leaders, including those from Australia, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
During his first presidency (2016-2020), Trump was criticised for sidelining this region unlike his predecessors. He only attended one Asean summit, when the Philippines was Chair in 2017, and skipped the next three. Despite losing to Joe Biden in November 2020, Trump attended the Asia Pacific Economic Coop-eration summit that month that was hosted by Malaysia, albeit online only amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
There have been calls for the Malaysian government to withdraw the invitation to Trump due to his administration’s strong support of Israel and inability to stop atrocities in Gaza.
The call became louder this week when 23 Malaysian volunteers who were part of a humanitarian flotilla to Gaza were captured with their shipmates by Israeli forces on Oct 2. Protests were held outside the US embassy in Kuala Lumpur hours after their arrests were confirmed. Late yesterday evening, the government announced the Malaysians were on the way to Istanbul before heading for home.
Just as the US is a strong ally of Israel, Malaysia has been a strong supporter of Palestine and the government has been consistent in its criticisms of Washington’s inability to rein in Israel. Malay-sia’s strong views have been expressed even in closed door meetings with American officials.
Malaysia has diplomatic ties with the US but Trump’s invitation to KL is via the Asean platform since we are Chair this year. Anwar has made it clear since taking over the Asean Chair that he hoped the US will reinvigorate its engagement with South-East Asia.
“Do we shut people out? Just because we do not like the person because of his policies, does it mean we do not want to meet him?
“Yes, Gaza is a big issue. What avenue is there for us to express our unhappiness with what is going on in Gaza?
“There is that engagement process. It’s not easy to meet the US president. With the summit coming and Trump indicating his attendance, we can tell him right to his face our views,” said a government official.
Then there is also the matter of managing Trump when he participates in the Asean-US Summit and the East Asia Summit, two meetings under the Asean Summit umbrella, the highest policymaking body in the regional grouping comprising the heads of state and government.
Will the Chair, who has the convening power, be able to deal with Trump, often described as mercurial?
“He may say stuff just like when he was at the United Nations General Assembly recently. You never know, so it is kind of tough to manage him.”
He could easily steal the thunder, and what happens then? The focus will be on him and not Asean.
“That is the downside. That is why the Chair will have to manage him, you have to be very skilful,” said a foreign observer.
On the diplomatic front, it is good to be able to get foreign leaders, especially from powerful nations, to attend the Asean Summit. For example during the 46th Asean Summit in May, Malaysia was able to convene the first Asean-Gulf Cooperation Council-China Summit, which made promises to deepen trilateral investment and trade against a backdrop of global economic volatility.
“It has never been done before. Malaysia got good traction on that, and now it is about us following it through.
“If you get Trump here, that shows Malaysia’s convening power. Good for Malaysia but you certainly need to manage the man,” said the observer.
But is Asean important enough for Trump?
“Politically, we think it is good for him to come to Kuala Lumpur for Asean because we have to admit the absence of an American president will result in the summit being dull to a certain extent.
“It is even worse if a lower level representation is sent. It would mean the US is not giving enough attention to the region, which is not good for us,” said an official.
There is a long list of leaders who have said yes to coming to KL. They were invited for their country’s chairmanship of organisations like G20 and BRICs. It is normal for some of these leaders to take advantage of the Asean summit to hold bilateral meetings with the superpower nations on the sidelines.
Latest reports suggest that the US and Brazil are making arrangements for Trump to meet Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Malaysia. The two leaders have been at odds over Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Against this backdrop, there is also the question of whether the current ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand, two neighbours having border dispute, will hold amid reports of rising tension. Malaysia played a central role in brokering peace in a meeting in Putrajaya in July, with the US as the co-organiser and China also participating.
The dispute caught the attention of Trump back then, who told leaders of the two countries to end the conflict or negotiations to reduce reciprocal tariffs would not proceed.
One summit that will also see US participation is the 20th East Asia Summit (EAS), along with Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and Asean member states.
After 20 years of existence, a credible EAS is necessary and must become a model for the region and beyond, with practical cooperation implemented for the mutual benefit of the people despite any political differences.
One week is a long time in politics, they say. Anything can happen in the next three weeks.
There is always a 2% chance of Trump giving the summit a miss.
If he does attend, Malaysia must be deft in its role as Chair to avoid the summit being turned into a media circus, with Trump as the ring leader.
The Asean agenda must not be sidetracked and other leaders must not be sidelined.
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