Working on Asean’s future

Looking back at when Asean first looked into the future: Under then prime minister Datuk Seri (now Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the 'Asean Vision 2020' was taken up by Asean leaders in 1997.

WHERE will you be in 2045? In 20 years’ time, that is.

Those of us who are still alive may be lucky enough to see what has emerged from the Asean Community Vision 2045.

That vision will be launched at the 46th Asean summit that will be held in Kuala Lumpur in May. It is an ambitious 20-year plan to further integrate the peoples of Asean in political, economic, and social spheres.

The 2045 vision is actually a continuation of the Asean 2025 Vision which was adopted, also in Kuala Lumpur, in 2015 when Malaysia was also in the Asean chair. The 10 Asean leaders adopted the landmark document, marking a historic turning point in Asean: the declaration of the Asean Community’s plans for the future after 48 years in existence as a grouping.

What does that vision and its sequel mean to the Asean peoples?

The ultimate objective is to have an Asean that remains peaceful and prosperous. But the most obvious question is how different will it be this time?

For a journalist who has covered many Asean-related meetings (so many that I have seriously lost track of the actual number), the grouping and its issues remain an enigma, and sometimes become downright blurry.

Sometimes you start to wonder what do these officials and the all important leaders do behind closed doors, rushing from one meeting room to another, stopping in between for photo ops, or conducting brief corridor interviews with the media.

But just to be clear, at these doorstop interviews as they’re known in the trade (or ambush interviews as some of us call them), the media would be lucky to get close enough to the leaders and ministers to ask a question because the people in charge of keeping these people safe take their job very seriously.

Most of the time we can only see the men in suits from afar. Mostly, we end up sitting in the media centre, reading statement after statement issued after most meetings, trying to make sense of what Asean is trying to tell us.

Some member countries sometimes have their minister or prime minister hold exclusive sessions with their country’s media entourage to explain the important issues discussed.

But I digress. Let’s go back to the Asean vision and history.

Basically, the vision is a broad strategic document which determines the future of the 10 member states and Asean as a region.

It will be 11 with the inclusion of Timor Leste, set to be officially admitted sometime in the near future (some are hopeful it will be this year). During the summit in Cambodia in 2022, Asean leaders agreed for Timor-Leste to be admitted in principle and granted it observer status. Recently, Asean decided that Timor Leste is now able to participate in Asean meetings, albeit without a decision-making role.

The 2045 Vision is the third such vision for Asean. In 1997 when Malaysia was Asean chair, the leaders adopted Asean Vision 2020. So it is really no coincidence that Kuala Lumpur would witness the adoption of the document then.

In 1997, the document adopted was basically the pledge of Asean leaders to create a community of South-East Asian nations at peace with one another and at peace with the world, to rapidly achieve prosperity for all the peoples, and steadily improve their lives.

The 10-year Vision 2025 launched in 2015 repeated almost the same pledges except it was divided according to three pillars: political/security, economy, and sociocultural.

In 2015, with Malaysia once again the Asean Chair, the 10 Asean leaders adopted a document that declared the Asean Community's plans for the future of the region.

But is this vision adopted a decade ago still relevant in a fast changing world?

That is the challenge facing the high level task force (HLTF) entrusted with drafting a strategic plan aimed at creating a resilient, innovative, dynamic, and people-centred Asean. Members of the HLTF are retired civil servants from all three pillars – political/security, economy, and sociocultural – within the region.

Of course, the vision document will not go into specifics, following the precedent set by the first two adopted in 1997 and 2015.

Drafting the document started in 2022 and after many, many rounds of meetings, negotiations are nearing completion.

“It is very difficult when nobody has a crystal ball to see what happens even tomorrow with the rising geopolitical risks,” said a diplomat.

“Just look at what is happening with [Donald] Trump making a return as US President. Fewer than 100 days and he is already causing an upheaval in global trade and economy.

“Then there is technology, with artificial intelligence and going digital being the buzzwords, so this 20-year vision needs to take all that into account.”

The Asean Vision 2045 is not cast in stone, though; it is merely a guide for what Asean will focus on for the next two decades.

“Of course, there is a period of review for the grouping to take a look at the vision and make the necessary adjustments,” said an official.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said in December that Malaysia’s chairmanship is built around a vision of shared progress seeking to combine economic pragmatism with human-centered values to leave no one behind.

The new vision, he said, includes a pledge to create a rules-based regional order – one that not only safeguards prosperity but also enhances South-East Asia’s stability while navigating tensions between great powers.

Asean is a process and there is no reason to stop at just one vision. More importantly, rising global tension makes this an opportune time to introduce a new vision.

The theme for this year’s Chair is “Asean 2025: Inclusivity and Sustainability”. Let’s hope the inclusivity is shared and encompasses all. Everybody must move towards a clear vision, otherwise officials are busy doing work which no one understands.