A symbolic special summit

Biden attending the Asean-US summit held online last year, sending a very strong message that Asean-10 is still very much in the minds of the Americans. – Agencies

AFTER several years of being “ignored” by the Trump administration, Asean leaders will finally get their day in Washington DC next week with the current US President, Joe Biden.

While Donald Trump’s record in engaging with Asean leaders was dismal, having only attended one summit with Asean leaders in Manila in 2017 (he did not even bother to attend subsequent summits including the ones held virtually due to the Covid-19 pandemic), Biden has shown more interest towards the region.

The United States’ absence in the region during the Trump’s administration was seen by observers as an opportunity for China’s further regional expansion and aggression. His failure to “show his face” is not seen too kindly by leaders within the region as they place higher value on face to face interactions and exchanges.

Under Biden, his administration has been sending a very strong message that Asean-10 is still very much in the minds of the Americans.

For a start, he attended the Asean-US summit held online last year, which was chaired by Brunei’s Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah. It was attended by all other Asean leaders minus Myanmar’s military junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, who was snubbed by chair Brunei after the military coup last year.

For the US-Asean summit in Washington, no invitation was extended to Min Aung Hlaing. Another Asean leader, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, has given indication he would not be attending as his tenure ends in June.

This special summit, to be held on May 12 and 13, is the second such summit. The first one was hosted by president Barack Obama in Sunnylands, California, in February 2016.

Asean-US relations have progressed well since it started in 1977, beginning with dialogues on political and security matters before evolving to technology; in the 1990s they began focusing on trade and investment.

In 2010, the US became the first dialogue partner to appoint a resident ambassador to Asean in Jakarta.

Observers feel that Biden wants to underline the importance of Asean to the United States.

“In terms of Asean-US, there are many substantive issues like security, economy and trade issues.

“This incoming summit is more symbolic rather than trying to achieve a concrete outcome because as in any summits, it is not easy to achieve a very concrete outcome,” says an observer.

On the table for the Americans would probably be the crisis in Myanmar and the war in Ukraine.

This summit is also being closely watched by China. A report in People’s Daily, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, speculated that countering China would be a major topic at the summit, with experts predicting uniting Asean to stand against China will be another “wild goose chase” by the US as the region has been extremely cautious of taking sides.

That is the dilemma for most countries, caught in a conflict between the two superpowers.

As for Asean, it doesn’t want to be seen as favouring one side with China and ignoring the US.

Asean-China relations are more “solid” with summits attended by its leaders without fail and as one official said:”The structure is already there.”

“If you look at this perspective then you would understand the importance of the summit. It is more symbolism.

“That is the strength of Asean. They place importance on the need to balance the two superpowers.

“At the end of the day, if there is a conflict between the superpowers, Asean will suffer,” says a diplomat.

During the Trump years, trade war between the US and China had caused uncertainties and affected economies and trade in the region.

“Whether you like it or not when it comes to the superpowers, Asean will have to take into account in their equation and what they have been doing is to balance the influence of the two superpowers.

“That is what Asean has been doing for many years and in managing relationships,” says a foreign observer.

Another possible issue to be raised is Washington’s proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which aims to build an economic sphere through trade and supply chain cooperation with countries in this part of the world including Southeast Asian countries. The economic bloc is seen as trying to counter China’s growing influence.

One interesting issue will be the war in Ukraine and Asean’s failure to come up with a common position.

Stark differences among Asean members in their responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February have resulted in a more muted regional response to the war.

The group has issued two statements calling for an immediate ceasefire and the continuation of political dialogue and yet did not openly name Russia as the aggressor.

Asean will have to coordinate a position to convey to the US a common stand by the time the summit takes place or it will be another round of reiterating their call for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

And lets not forget Asean’s perpetual problem in its own backyard. Closer to home is the worsening crisis in Myanmar and Asean struggling to rein in its own member despite having the Five-Point Consensus to stop violence and bring stability in Myanmar.

Will the US put pressure on Asean to do something?

For sure, a wide range of issues and concerns will be discussed for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

What’s important is the continuous efforts to keep open channels of dialogue between countries, including at the highest level.

Will the summit provide any tangible outcome? That remains to be seen.