A very long engagement

RUSSIA’S invasion of Ukraine has been the headline news these past few weeks as Moscow’s aggression takes a toll on civilians, driving hundreds of thousands out of their homes and causing an increasing number of deaths.

As countries criticised Russia’s invasion, Asean Foreign Ministers too issued a statement expressing their deep concern on the situation, sans naming the aggressor country. The ministers believe that there is still room for a peaceful dialogue to prevent the situation from getting out of control.

Sounds familiar?

The thing is, there is this huge humanitarian crisis and human rights violation problem in our own backyard and Asean is struggling to rein in its own member, Myanmar, for the atrocities against their own citizens.

Lately, news wise, it has been pretty quiet on Myanmar since its military junta power grab in February last year. It’s probably a blessing for them since the world’s attention is on Ukraine being attacked by Russia.

The United Nations Special Envoy to Myanmar Noelyn Heyser in her press conference one year after the coup said more than 1,500 people have been killed and about 14.4 million people are in need of humanitarian aid in Myanmar.

Asean leaders, including Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, the commander in chief of the military takeover which deposed an elected civilian government, met in Jakarta for a special summit on Myanmar two months after the coup.

In an attempt to bring an end to the violence and instability in Myanmar, the leaders adopted a Five-Point Consensus (5PC), which also included constructive dialogue among all parties concerned and the appointment of a special envoy of the Asean Chair to facilitate mediation of the dialogue process.

As Myanmar military junta failed to adhere to the consensus, Min Aung Hlaing was excluded from the Asean summit chaired by Brunei last October.

It was a rare reprimand against a member by the regional grouping but a welcome decision by the grassroots in Myanmar because the junta could not use their propaganda machine to say they are still being invited for meetings.

Since the last Asean summit in Brunei, calls continued to be made by Asean leaders during their bilateral meetings on the need for Myanmar to stick to the consensus.

The Asean Foreign Ministers retreat in Phnom Penh last month noted the lack of progress in the implementation of the consensus.

So what is on the table for Asean now?

Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn, who has been appointed the Asean special envoy on Myanmar, is planning to meet with all the parties concerned in the country. Latest reports suggest that Sokhonn will be going to Naypyidaw on March 20.

Sokhonn has said that he was seeking permission to meet with representatives of the National Unity Government (NUG), set up last year by members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) administration that the military overthrew. But the response from the ruling junta has been dismissive as the NUG has been declared as a terrorist organisation.

Myanmar’s foreign affairs ministry in a statement said suggesting the envoy engage with such groups “was not only contrary to the principles of the Asean Charter but also undermines Asean’s counter-terrorism efforts.”

Within Asean itself there is already division on who the grouping should be engaging. At the Foreign Ministers’ retreat, there was a suggestion to invite junta’s representative for a close session at the retreat. It was shot down by at least two countries.

Several members felt it was a practical approach to engage the junta although Asean does not recognise the junta.

Another development is taking place which is rather unsurprising. Myanmar is now trying to disengage itself from the 5PC, despite its junta leader’s presence at last April’s special summit in Jakarta that had adopted the consensus.

Asean officials say Myanmar has been “consistent” that it could “go along” with the 5PC but kept on insisting the situation is complex and they need time to implement it.

“You are in control but you are under international pressure, and yet you still have your pride because from your perspective, you are just defending your country’s interest.

“So in the case of Myanmar, they are just thinking in the best interest of their country and trying to delay as much as possible,” said an Asean diplomat, in reference to implementing proposals contained in the consensus.

Myanmar is also now shifting the blame on the last Asean chair, Brunei, for its “unilateral decision” to invite a non-political representative from Myanmar to Asean high level meetings. As it is, the United States said it would follow the lead of Asean by inviting a non-political representative from Myanmar to a US-Asean summit in Washington.

Will Myanmar be Asean’s pariah state like it used to, ignored by other countries and face possible further backlash from the international community for its inability to uphold democratic process and stop the violence?

Asean as a grouping can only do so much with its own limitation. Can Asean turn to the United Nations then?

The Security Council in a statement coinciding one year after the coup reiterated support to Asean’s 5PC and its special envoy’s role for his diplomatic efforts to commence constructive dialogue among all parties concerned.

The council also encouraged UN’s own envoy, Heyzer, to engage with relevant parties in Myanmar and encouraged the complementarity of her work to the work of Asean.

What does all this mean? Is Asean’s proposal the only one on the table now and is the Security Council hiding behind Asean vis-a-vis Myanmar?

Looking at how things are developing, or rather the lack of progress, it will be a long and winding process to get the junta on board to bring some semblance of peace in Myanmar.