A lion in winter

Observers note that most Americans including Trump cannot even locate Greenland on a map. At Davos he mistook it for Iceland twice, then when caught out denied he had made a mistake. — Eric Lee/The New York Times

SPECIMEN Trump is far removed from Davos Man, but he nonetheless made this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) platform work for him.

In the buildup to the week’s WEF the Trump administration was blowing hot and cold about annexing Greenland, grabbing it from Denmark regardless of international law. Fresh from attacking Venezuela and kidnapping its head of state, Team Trump would not rule out military force against a fellow Nato member.

Throwing more heat than light on the issues helped warm up Davos in winter if nothing else. Upon arrival, Trump said the US would not use force and revealed that he had reached a “framework” deal on Greenland with Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Was Greenland, Denmark or the EU even consulted? Rutte said sovereignty was not even discussed – as before, that did not seem to matter.

What might have been relief – an end to the prospect of a US invasion of Greenland – was eclipsed by how Trump got his way by threatening the use of force. Nonetheless, he may still use force “if necessary.”

Davos is in some ways like Greenland, a cold, underpopulated place occasionally caught in the world’s headlines but not always for the right reasons. Both locations may also be used for ulterior motives.

But there are also important differences. Greenland’s vast spaces are desolate despite rich mineral deposits, while the wealth in tiny Davos comes with the world’s rich and famous gathering there each year to be seen if not heard, while trying to look intelligent or at least feel important.

Nato’s prospective involvement in Greenland shows Trump’s sudden interest in the island was no random occurrence. Having failed to expand eastwards in Ukraine, an ambitious Nato is seeking to expand northwards in the Arctic.

Observers note that most Americans including Trump cannot even locate Greenland on a map. At Davos he mistook it for Iceland twice, then when caught out denied he had made a mistake.

The US military had already established Camp Century under Greenland’s ice sheets in 1959 as a secret Cold War base for spying on the Soviet Union. But after melting ice flooding its tunnels forced its closure in 1964, everyone soon forgot about it.

Environmental degradation is accelerating, making new bases more challenging to design, construct and operate. Costs are rising, and relentless extraction of Greenland’s resources will present new problems.

Trump himself is not a natural fit at the WEF where politically correct “globalists” lament a worsening environmental crisis and expound multilateral solutions based on international conventions. But no blustery operator bent on hustling his way to a deal would ignore the opportunity Davos presents for exploiting the international spotlight it offers.

Thus Trump came away with better chances of taking parts of Greenland if not all of it, through a form of transaction if not an outright smash-and-grab. Davos also provides others with a conducive atmosphere for cool and collected efforts at change.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney took the opportunity to declare his country’s pivot from Washington to saner neutrality, thanks to Trump’s hints about grabbing Canada next. Carney and his team had just returned from Beijing with a trade deal of their own, signalling the beginnings of a reset with China.

In 2018 Canada jumped to obey Trump 1.0’s order to arrest and detain Huawei Vice-Chairperson Sabrina Meng, in a years-long ordeal that was unrelated to Canada other than souring its relations with China. Carney said Trump 2.0 has now “ruptured” that kind of relationship.

Bolstering Canada’s newfound independence is Carney’s impending visit to India for fresh deals. Canada is not alone in acknowledging India’s significance as Asia’s second-biggest economy and the world’s fourth-largest.

On Wednesday the EU suspended a trade deal with the US over Trump’s bad faith, then moved to a “historic trade agreement” with India. Trump’s tariff threat against EU countries and 50% tariffs on India helped make this new EU-India agreement possible.

The EU seeks to go further with India in a new security partnership supplementing their free trade agreement. None of this might have been possible without Trump.

There is notably less movement in East Asia, however. Japan is stuck in conservative mode, hampered in adapting to changing circumstances.

The Aukus arrangement is faltering with newly revealed limits to the capacities of the US, UK and Australia relative to their needs. Real-world shortages span technology, available vessels and skilled crews while the requirements now loom larger.

The Quad arrangement between the US, Japan, India and Australia has approached its own limits. The realities of interdependence beyond the pact have trounced wishful thinking.

Few realise that the region prefers economic partnerships to military alliances. Being better attuned to actual needs beyond unilateral concerns always helps.

Bunn Nagara is Director and Senior Fellow at the Renaissance Strategic Research Institute, and Honorary Fellow of the Perak Academy. The views expressed here are solely the writer’s own.