Pakatan mulling “test election” in Perak

NURUL Izzah Anwar sort of made news for the wrong reason this week.

A report that she had resigned as PKR deputy president caused a buzz that persisted for days, only dying away after Nurul Izzah herself dismissed it as “completely untrue”.

However, a segment in PKR thinks she may have intended to resign, possibly over issues relating to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission, but that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim did not accept it or, as some suggest, did not allow it.

A resignation so high up would further disrupt the party, which has been held up to scrutiny by Pandan MP Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and which has led some to label PKR as “parti derita” (party in distress).

Moreover, all party leaders will need to rise to the occasion, going by insider information that the leadership is exploring a “test case” snap state election in Perak.

Why? What is going on? Is it necessary? All these questions will be rolling around in people's heads when they learn of this.

The arguments for it actually make sense. Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional have only joined hands in sporadic by-elections, but their pact has not been tested on a larger scale.

The opposition from the Umno grassroots about DAP continues to be a source of concern for leaders on both sides, and they are unsure how the pact will work out on a larger scale.

The move to test the workability of the pact in such a bold manner also means that talk of an early general election is more than just talk. The Prime Minister is indeed open to persuasion for an early general election if the conditions are right.

Another question is, why Perak?

Penang and Selangor were also possible options, but why waste time and money on Penang when the outcome there is quite predictable?

Selangor is in no danger of falling, but the swing of seats in the Malay heartland to Perikatan Nasional during the six-state election came as a shock to Pakatan and Umno. PKR would not want to risk possible erosion of seats in their crown jewel.

Perak’s ethnic breakdown - 60% Malay, 28% Chinese and 11% Indian - makes it a suitable case study. It is almost a microcosm of the national demography.

Moreover, Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad is a steady pair of hands.

Saarani, a former mathematics teacher, may look like a Grab driver, but he is hard-working, has a sharp mind and a meticulous style and has been able to hold together the hybrid state government. He can be relied upon to push the agenda.

Another factor is that Perikatan is still grappling with internal discord, and Larut MP Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin does not have the same clout in Perak now that he is out of Bersatu.

Perak is a lower-risk test case and could provide answers and indications of what a larger election may hold for the Madani government.

It will also test the political sentiment of the Gen Z cohort.

PKR has real concerns that Gen Z cannot relate to the hardships Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and those who took to the streets on his behalf endured.

PKR leaders feel they need to win over the Gen Z vote, which swung to PAS in the last general election.

Anwar’s problem is the Malay vote, which remains sluggish despite numerous overtures to the community.

Perak could provide an opportunity to test the Malay vote. Of the 59 state seats in Perak, 40 are Malay-majority, 16 are Chinese-majority, and three are mixed.

Perikatan performed well, winning 26 seats in the 2022 general election.

If the Umno-Pakatan cooperation performs better in the Malay seats, it will send a positive signal to the Madani leadership.

The idea of going for a snap general election was first mooted in the context of bringing along the Melaka, Johor and Sarawak state elections.

Synchronising the federal and state elections makes sense. All these standalone state elections are too costly and distracting.

Besides, Pakatan is anxious to avoid more humiliation after what happened in the Sabah state election. PKR, in particular, could suffer setbacks in Melaka and Johor.

Moreover, the impact of the war in the Middle East and the spiralling fuel prices is being felt on industries, business and everyday life.

Analysts are painting a grim picture of what’s to come, and pressure is mounting on those who must manage the economy. More belt-tightening lies ahead, which will not sit well with the rakyat.

As such, considerations for an early election are no longer just about coalition politics but also about the economy.

Discussion on the Perak test case is said to be coming from the inner circle around the Prime Minister, and as a political insider pointed out: “Would they be doing this without a nod or okay from the big man?”

The same insider said that if the leadership decides to proceed in Perak, it will have to happen before the Melaka state assembly, which is expected to be dissolved by August.

According to the insider above, the Perak snap polls could also take place before DAP’s July congress to spare the party an awkward decision.

The outcome from Perak will enable the Prime Minister to weigh his options and decide whether to dissolve Parliament soon or to go a full term.

The war in Iran is far too unpredictable given the way United States President Donald Trump flip-flops from day to day and sometimes even in the same press conference.

“It could be risky to call a general election too soon, but waiting also poses a different level of risk. The situation might deteriorate if the Madani government goes for a full term,” said the above political insider.

The idea of a snap election in Perak is controversial and is bound to draw a flood of reactions. But it is a move that could better prepare Anwar to secure a second term as Prime Minister.

 

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own.