An election with many twists and turns

The run-up to the Sabah election has been studded with one bombshell after another with the latest coming in the form of a stunning court decision on state rights.

IT is being spoken about as the most difficult election to predict in the history of Sabah.

Even the key players preparing to do battle admit the Sabah state election on Nov 29 will not end with a clear-cut winner.

A hung assembly looms on the horizon because it is unlikely that any single coalition or party will be able to secure a simple majority of 37 seats out of 73 state seats.

In other words, more instability lies ahead in an election mired by corruption scandals, the tragic death of a schoolgirl and, more recently, an earth-shaking decision by the Kota Kinabalu High Court affirming Sabah’s constitutional entitlement to 40% of federal revenue that could amount to billions of ringgit.

If one had to sum up the events leading to the state election, it would be like reading a book with a headline on every page.

The shockwaves from the judgement, popularly referred to as the “40% entitlement,” fanned out like tsunami waves from Sabah to Putrajaya. It sent political parties scrambling to respond.

“It is a huge, huge decision that caught all of us by surprise,” said a prominent Sabah Umno personality who asked not to be named.

The Umno personality is still trying to decipher the full implications but as a true-blue Sabahan, he regards it as a “victory for us”.

“We need to end the polemic over state rights that has been going on for so many years. Anything seen to be against the court decision would be a betrayal. It’s in the Constitution and we need to work out the mechanism to go about it,” said the Umno figure.

There has not been a single voice of dissent from political parties taking part in the election. Everyone is milking it as just and timely as well as to urge the Attorney General’s Chamber (AGC) not to appeal the judgement.

Caretaker Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor immediately invited the Sabah Law Society (SLS), the body behind the application, to his official residence to acknowledge their effort and for what journalists call a “photo op”.

SLS, previously seen as a troublesome body, had suddenly become a people’s hero whereas the legal counsel representing the state government found themselves thrown under the bus.

Luyang assemblyman and state DAP chairman Ginger Phoong took to the media to claim that his party had, in close-door negotiations, pushed hard for more special grants for Sabah.

He said this in a special interview that made it to the front page of the Sabah edition of Sin Chew Daily but his claim drew a barrage of criticism on the newspaper’s Facebook page.

“The urban seats are no longer as predictable for DAP as in previous years. There is anger and confusion and the Chinese electorate is quite divided,” said a Kota Kinabalu-based lawyer.

The High Court decision has put the federal government in an awkward corner. The implications are immense and the AGC needs to review the judgement and advise the executive.

The judgement has lent weight to the Sabah for Sabahans sentiment battlecry that resonates especially among the Kadazandusun Murut community.

However, Unimas senior lecturer Dr Arnold Puyok is mindful that in the interior areas, basic needs still reign over lofty ideas and aspirations.

For instance, a billboard in Pensiangan featuring its MP Datuk Seri Arthur Joseph Kurup with a stretch of road behind him could be an equally powerful battlecry.

The boyish-faced Arthur, whose father was a big name in Sabah’s politics, had delivered what the locals had long waited for - a road leading from Sook to Karamatoi.

“They love him over there. People in the rural areas are pragmatic, they stick with you if you are able to look after them. There is always this dynamic between local and state sentiments.

“If you were to ask people about the court judgement, some of them will say: What is the use of millions of ringgit when basic needs are not met. Roads, water, electricity are still important to the rural electorate,” said Dr Arnold.

Dr Arnold said the dark horse in this election is the new Kadazandusun Murut party, known as Parti KDM. It could be the magnet for Undi18 votes and those disenchanted with the same old faces.

The party’s de facto leader Datuk Peter Anthony is sitting in jail for a graft conviction, his daughter Priscella is the president while deputy president Datuk Wetrom Bahanda is the chief spokesman.

Peter, is quite a charismatic figure and a talented singer who popularised the song, “Original Sabahan,” which is often played at political events.

The Prime Minister’s chief political secretary Datuk Seri Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin said that internal surveys show a positive approval rating for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

“Much will rest on the popularity of the PM. But we are not taking things for granted because this is the first state election for the unity government and the Undi18 vote is hard to read,” said Shamsul.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister had better be prepared with a good explanation of where he stands on the High Court judgement. What he says and how he says it on the campaign trail will impact Pakatan Harapan and its partner Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

PKR has languished under a weak leadership in Sabah all these years. The party won only two seats in the last state election, it has limited ground machinery and lacks a local narrative.

But it is now the party of the Prime Minister and that changes its bargaining clout.

The Umno side complained that PKR “stole” its candidate for Merotai, a senior federal civil servant named Datuk Ruji Ubi, whom Umno had apparently been grooming.

PKR is also said to have recruited another ex-Umno man Datuk Yamani Hafez Musa, whose father is Governor Tun Musa Aman, to contest in Sindunim.

The Sabah polls would have been over and done with by now had it not been for the scandalous videos of GRS politicians caught in alleged acts of corruption.

The ruling GRS coalition delayed calling the polls hoping that things would cool down but the temperature kept rising.

Datuk Albert Tei, the man behind the videos, has been barred from entering Sabah. He is a nuisance to some and a whistleblower to others and there is speculation that he is waiting for the right moment to unveil more incriminating videos.

If that is indeed the case, the new bombshells could make this election even harder to predict.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own