How will Malay votes swing in Selangor?

MALAY sentiment in Selangor is said to be rustling like trees in the wind.

The Malay mood is quite unsettled and, almost every day, journalists covering Selangor’s politics are asked if the state is going to fall.

And should the journalists say it is demographically quite impossible for an ethnically-mixed state like Selangor to fall to a Malay dominant coalition, they are met with dubious looks or even told: “You are wrong.”

This sort of reaction usually involves Malays and it is a situation of popular opinion versus rational thinking.

Social media is still obsessing over Kedah and its charismatic mentri besar but, as a media consultant pointed out, Selangor is ground zero for Pakatan Harapan/Umno.

Speculation over Selangor’s fate stems from the fact that 33 of the 56 state seats have more than 60% of Malay voters and they look ripe for the picking - on paper at least.

However, lawyer and political analyst Ivanpal S. Grewal said if Selangor is to fall to Perikatan Nasional, the Malay turnout has to touch 80%.

And because only about 1% of non-Malays are likely to support Perikatan, the coalition has to secure a whopping 80% of support from the Malays who vote on Aug 12.

This level of Malay support, he said, has never happened for any Malay party in electoral history. But if 90% of Chinese support DAP, why is it impossible that 80% of Malays could go for Perikatan?

Ivanpal said Pakatan will also need a high Chinese and Indian turnout as a result of the expected surge of Malay support for Perikatan.

“Pakatan can only secure the state with a non-Malay turnout of 85% of which 90% has to cast their votes for Pakatan. In addition, Pakatan also needs 30% of Malay support,” he said.

Ivanpal’s assessment is based on a study of the racial breakdown of the seats, but without taking into account, the strength or weakness of the candidates in different seats.

What this means is that both sides have to bring out their supporters.

It has sent politicians into siren mode, appealing to their base to come out in full force.

Selangor’s multiracial politics paved the way for Pakatan to come to power but Malaysia’s politics is in a state of flux and there is now a discernible racial divide.

A lot of it has to do with the economic and cost of living issues but for many Malays it is also a carry-over of their rejection of Umno and suspicions about DAP.

The fact that Pakatan and Umno leaders are still justifying their partnership on the campaign stage suggests that their respective base has yet to fully accept each other.

The Malay ripples are no longer just confined to the conservative Malay heartland seats that wrap around Selangor from north to south. It has spilled over to the urban Malays.

Selangor PAS secretary Roslan Shahir said a former city mayor told him after a Perikatan ceramah in Kelana Jaya that, “I will make sure my pensioner friends vote for Perikatan.”

Kelana Jaya is an urban 1980s state government housing scheme with many government servants who have now become pensioners.

Generally, there are as many such accounts among Malays as there are of Chinese voters pledging their hearts to Pakatan.

Pakatan’s dream of a fourth term in Selangor hinges on Umno and Amanah delivering the Malay-majority seats.

Amanah has done well over the last two elections and seems well-accepted by all races. But the gathering Malay wave will be challenging for the PAS splinter party.

It is more challenging for Umno in Selangor because all but one of the 12 seats that Umno is contesting comprise more than 70% of Malay voters.

Only Dusun Tua, contested by Hulu Langat Umno division chief Datuk Johan Aziz, looks winnable thanks to the Chinese presence although that is assuming the Chinese come out in full force for him.

Dusun Tua is a bellwether seat for Umno. If Johan pulls through, Umno might win in several other seats like Semenyih and Batang Kali. If Dusun Tua falls then Umno will end up with a big ostrich egg in Selangor.

Ivanpal says there are another four must-watch seats - Taman Medan, Batu Tiga, Bukit Melawati and Kota Damansara. These are urban PKR-held seats with more than 60% Malay content.

“Keep your eye on them. If these seats fall, then it means that Perikatan is on the way to winning Selangor. Otherwise it will be a Pakatan government,” he said.

Caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari has unveiled quite an impressive manifesto that has something for everyone.

Yet, said an Umno official, the manifesto has had quite little traction.

“People are not sharing on social media or talking about it. It is as though they have already decided how they are going to vote,” said the Umno official.

The state election presents the perfect opportunity for Amirudin to step out from under the shadow of his predecessor Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali who was his mentor.

The pair who are contesting seats in the Gombak locality shared a sweet moment on nomination day. As they stood on stage with the other candidates, Azmin, noticing that Amirudin was standing at the end of row, reached over and drew mentri besar by the hand to the middle spot, smiling affectionately as he placed his arm around the younger man’s shoulder.

It was a gentlemanly moment given the way Pakatan has been slamming Azmin at every one of their ceramahs, plus the fact that Azmin is Perikatan’s mentri besar candidate.

Can Amirudin continue to sell Pakatan’s multi-ethnic narrative to hold on to this golden state? Can he withstand the Malay wave sweeping Selangor?

Selangor has become what the above Umno official describes as a battle for the Malay support, a test of the Malay ground and of who the Malays want as their leader.

Everyone will be glued to the outcome in Selangor on Aug 12.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own.