Premier states out to foil green wave

UNTIL a few days ago, the Penang South Island (PSI) project was starting to look like an impossible dream for Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow.

As such, it was an elated Chow who announced that the mega-project had secured the final approval from Putrajaya. The reclamation scheme is his signature project just as the undersea tunnel was the dream of his predecessor.

Chow, who is coming to the end of his first term at the helm, can now give Penangites a glimpse of the future and his “islands in the sun” could even provide that “oomph” factor in the state election.

But did Pakatan Harapan really need this mega-project to hold onto Penang?

The state polls are about defending Penang against the green wave and the non-Malays have long made up their minds that they are sticking with Pakatan, project or no project.

The proposed islands had courted controversy from the word go, not only for its environmental impact but also because it would hurt hundreds of fisherfolk who are largely Malays.

It will be an election issue and it will also be awkward for the Prime Minister who is perceived as making a U-turn on the issue.

One of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s first stops after he was pardoned in 2018 was to meet with the Malay fishermen where he shared his concerns about the scheme.

Former Permatang Pauh MP Nurul Izzah Anwar had also been vocal about it but has since gone all quiet.

Attention is also on Natural Resources, Environment and Climate Change Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, who has made two controversial decisions connected to infrastructure giant Gamuda Bhd in his first months in office.

The first was the appointment of former Gamuda top executive Mohammed Rashdan Yusof as the Energy Commission chairman. The second is his ministry’s approval of the reclamation project which is being undertaken by a Gamuda subsidiary.

It could be purely coincidental but the chattering class have been chattering away.

“The project is important to the Chief Minister especially given talk that he might be replaced after the elections. Getting the approval is a personal victory for him, it is something major in his report card,” said a Penang lawyer.

But has Chow delivered the silver bullet to Perikatan Nasional?

Perikatan Nasional is bound to ride on the issue in the state election and stir up the Malay base.

Chow’s confidence might have to do with the fact that a recent survey on Penang politics indicated that Perikatan is likely to make headway in only six out of 40 seats in Penang.

But that was before the mega project got the go-ahead. The Chief Minister will have to take the lead in defending the project in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the fight in Selangor will be even more feverish because Malays dominate 33 of the 56 state seats.

A survey commissioned by Pakatan in Selangor indicated that the ruling coalition may lose between 11-15 seats in the 56-seat state assembly. Pakatan had a fantastic run in 2018, losing only five seats - four to Umno and one to PAS.

However, the good news is that Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari’s ratings among the Malays is a healthy fifty-something.

Amirudin, 43 and a father of six does not have the economic know-how of the late Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim or the charisma and good looks of Datuk Seri Mohd Azmin Ali.

But his bland temperament somehow sits well with the average person. He is not aggressive, does not hurt people with his words and has few enemies.

His maiden speech in Parliament as Gombak MP earned a congratulatory note from the big boss, Anwar.

His team said he likes the “Jokowi style” - down to earth, mild-mannered and relatable.

“It’s the Javanese in him. He is hard-working, he’s not an extremist and does not play politics. His moderate ways are suited for a modern and multi-racial state like Selangor. Actually, it is demographically impossible for Perikatan to capture Selangor,” said his chief policy officer Eekmal Ahmad.

Amirudin, said Eekmal, intends to fight the green wave with the economic wave.

Pakatan is relying on Amanah and Umno to do battle against Perikatan. The rationale is that if Pakatan and Umno pool their resources, they can outrun Perikatan to the finishing line.

The trouble is that the Umno brand is still damaged while Amanah is a little better than the Malay politicians in DAP - they are unable to champion Malay issues or win in Malay seats.

“The Malay sentiment has not changed much since the last general election. Umno has also not changed enough to attract ordinary voters. The only question is whether people will take the trouble to turn out to vote,” said Selangor Umno politician Isham Jalil.

Moreover, Umno has just gone through an intense party election that saw fierce fights for leadership at several divisions in Selangor.

“There are always splits after a party election, half the machinery will not be working. Umno will have to work hard to hold on to what it has.

“But there will be a backlash if Umno gets only five seats to contest in Selangor. It has to get more than 10 seats to appease those on the ground, to get them to come out to campaign,” said Isham.

Moreover, said former Kapar division chief Datuk Faizal Abdullah, only about 20% of Malays in Selangor were Umno members.

“To win, Umno needs the support of ordinary people,” he said.

Everything looks good on paper for these two premier states under Pakatan’s control but the devil is in the details.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own.