Is the Johor election slated for March?

THE spotlight on the Johor Mentri Besar has been intense.

Datuk Hasni Mohammad is the man of the moment amid speculation that Johor is on the cusp of a snap state election.

Hasni has kept the election date close to his chest, deflecting questions from the media and behaving as though it is business-as-usual for his state government.

This despite insider accounts that the MB has obtained the green light from the “bumbung hijau atas bukit”; the “green roof on the hill” or Istana Bukit Serene is how many Johoreans allude to the all-powerful Johor Sultan.

The impending Johor election is no longer a secret.

The election is likely to be in March because, according to a state government source, the Election Commission would require five to six weeks to prepare for the election.

The chain of events began after Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Johor Umno deputy chief Datuk Seri Nur Jazlan Mohamed called on the Sultan a few weeks ago.

The palace meeting was so hush-hush that Nur Jazlan has, till today, refused to say a word about it.

“Stop, don’t ask me, I’m not saying anything,” he said when contacted.

The MB had also briefed the Umno supreme council meeting last week on the necessity for the polls.

The state government is holding on by a majority of one after the recent death of Datuk Osman Sapian resulting in a situation that Hasni had previously likened to “an egg on the tip of a buffalo’s horn”.

The wafer-thin majority has ironically opened a window of opportunity for Hasni to seek a new mandate although critics insist it is unnecessary and a waste of money.

“I don’t see the need for this election. We want to put the people first, we have been supportive.

“We recently gave the state government the 2/3 majority vote needed to amend the state constitution for those above 18 to vote and contest in elections,” said Amanah deputy president and Simpang Jeram assemblyman Datuk Salahuddin Ayub.

However, Pakatan Harapan did play politics during the budget session of the state assembly in November when all 27 opposition assemblymen abstained from voting for the budget. The Bill went through only after the Speaker cast the deciding vote.

“The uncertainty is bad for everyone. Johor is a major economic centre. Jobs, businesses and investments are at stake.

“People want a stable government to plan and implement policies for the next five years. We need to end this monkey business where bills may not be passed in the state assemby,” said Nur Jazlan.

This is the golden opportunity for Barisan Nasional to regain control of Johor the constitutional way - through the front door and not the back gate.

The outcomes of the recent state elections have boosted the confidence of Barisan leaders.

It has less to do with any major recovery on the part of Barisan than the fact that Pakatan is at its weakest after the crushing defeats in Melaka and Sarawak.

But it may not be a walk in the park for Barisan as Pakatan in Johor is not as big a mess as in other states.

“There is less infighting and there are no serious problems among us over here,” said Salahuddin.

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia is also much stronger in Johor than elsewhere.

Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin - who is the Gambir assemblyman and Pagoh MP - will be around to hold the fort for Perikatan Nasional with the help of PAS.

This election is, however, extremely critical for the survival of Bersatu. Any further erosion of support will mean trouble for the party in the next general election.

Although many Chinese have become quite critical of the party, DAP should be able to hold onto most of their seats on the strength of Chinese support. DAP won their seats in 2018 with strong majorities and only three of their 14 seats look vulnerable.

“The Chinese mood is not as hard as before. The business community wants stability,” said Pagoh MCA chairman Datuk Lim Pay Hen.

Barisan is going in with the aim of forming the next government but it is unclear as yet whether Pakatan and Perikatan will also contest every available seat.

The next few weeks will be the most important in Hasni’s career. So much rests on his shoulders and he could end up a hero or get burnt.

At the same time, Barisan could not get a more ideal personality than Hasni to lead the coalition into battle.

“He is our ‘poster man’. He has good relations with the palace, federal leaders and also Singapore,” said Nur Jazlan.

Being the MB of Johor means having to work well with the island state because Singaporeans come over to spend money while Johoreans go over to earn money.

By the time Hasni took over as MB in 2020 Johoreans had grown quite fed-up with the non-stop politicking.

His two predecessors were rather unremarkable but Hasni has turned out to be the sort of leader that Johor is often known for.

He is sensible and moderate, urbane yet down-to-earth. He thinks before he opens his mouth and he has managed the tumultuous politics with immense maturity.

On top of that, he is good-looking and has a pleasant personality.

His party may not appeal to the Chinese who make up almost half of the Johor populace, but Hasni does have what it takes to reach out to the non-Malays and young voters.

Some sort of announcement on the election is expected after the state Umno meeting this afternoon.

This will be the third state election in three months and it could be the most exciting. The political temperature in Johor will rise from here.