Umno split over which election to have first

Photo: Bernama

DATUK Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob likes to keep his speeches plain, simple and uncontroversial. But it was quite a different story when he was back in Bera for the division’s annual general meeting (AGM).

His speech at the AGM was peppered with hints about where he stands on an issue that is on fire in Umno today - to go for an early general election (GE15) or for the government to continue till 2023.

Cracks have formed between those pressing for GE15 to be held by next June and those who want the party election to be held first.

“It’s an unspoken dilemma for the top guns,” said an Umno Youth leader from Kelantan.

It is also apparent by now that the group favouring an early Umno election is aligned to the Prime Minister, while those calling for an early GE15 are mostly grouped around the Umno president.

Which of the two camps commands the ground ought to be clearer after the Umno divisions complete their AGMs today (Dec 18)

There is pressure on the divisions to take a stand and pass resolutions to support or oppose an early GE15.

However, it is understood that most of the division chiefs have decided not to further politicise this thorny issue with resolutions. They will stick to expressing support for the prime minister and leave the question of elections to the top party leadership.

But expect the issue to be the hot item at the Umno general assembly next month.

Ismail Sabri’s team has been pushing his stand among ministers and MPs.

For instance, the Government Backbenchers Club, headed by Pasir Salak MP Datuk Seri Tajuddin Rahman, had declared that a snap general election would be a waste of money and that the Prime Minister needs more time to revive the economy and pass the Undi18 and anti-hopping laws.

Tajuddin used to be a big supporter of Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi but is now an ardent defender of Ismail Sabri.

“Defending Ismail Sabri does not mean that I don’t love Zahid. I still love Zahid,” Tajuddin told his division members.

The Ketereh division in Kelantan made no mention of the election issue but passed a resolution to support the prime minister so that he can focus on the national recovery agenda “until the end of the 14th parliamentary term in 2023”.

It was as good as saying that Ketereh, which is headed by Communications and Multimedia Minister Tan Sri Annuar Musa, is not for an early general election.

“We worked so hard to make him the PM, now we want him to go to war. Are we ready? Is this what people want? Let’s wait,” said Ketereh deputy chairman Datuk Seri Alwi Che Ahmad.

Why does the group around the Prime Minister want a party election first?

For a start, they know he will have a better shot at the presidency if he contests as the prime minister. They think their man is having problems because he is the first prime minister from Umno who is not the party president

And if Ismail Sabri does become the next Umno president, he will be assured of going into GE15 as Barisan Nasional’s “poster boy,” the leading face on campaign posters and billboards.

But very few of the division chiefs relish the idea of party polls because it means having to fight all over again for the division leadership. If they lose, they will not be picked as candidates in GE15.

And Umno elections can be brutal affairs that split the rank-and-file, spelling trouble for the party in a general election.

The Umno supreme council has assigned its top five leaders, including Ismail Sabri, to discuss the best date for a general election.

This itself is quite unprecedented. When has any prime minister ever had to discuss the election date with his party?

Anyone who dared suggest that to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would have been rewarded with a killer stare.

But Ismail is no Mahathir and the old rules have been chucked out of the window.

Anyway, as Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan admitted: “We can discuss but, constitutionally, it is for the PM to decide. There’s nothing we can do if he does not follow what the party says.”

Supreme council member Datuk Seri Ahmad Shabery Cheek said that whatever the decision, “timing is important in calling for a general election”.

He said Ismail Sabri might be making the same mistake as Datuk Seri Najib Razak who waited too long in not one, but two general elections.

By the time Najib dissolved parliament in 2013, public opinion had grown toxic towards him and his wife. He repeated the mistake in 2018, giving the opposition time to strengthen their alliance against him.

“There will never be a perfect time for an election but the best time is when the enemy is weak,” said Ahmad Shabery.

The Prime Minister is also in danger of being perceived as not listening enough to the party.

He must surely be aware of the chatter that he did not do enough to help the party during the Melaka election and that he is unable to control the Finance Minister.

Umno leaders are still annoyed at how Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz allowed the issue of the government property that was supposed to be given to Najib to explode at the height of the Melaka campaign.

Asked about rumours that Najib and Ismail Sabri have fallen out, Titiwangsa division chief Datuk Johari Ghani said with a laugh: “In Umno, rumours are usually true.”

Ismail Sabri is still the quintessential Mr Nice Guy but will that help him to face political storms? His Cabinet is quite unremarkable and only Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin stands out.

The journey will only get tougher now that his 100-day honeymoon is over.

He is sitting on a borrowed mandate or what the opposition parties call a stolen mandate and the joke going around is that people voted in one prime minister and got two free.

“It is not possible to have a strong government or political stability on a borrowed mandate. Only a general election can clear the uncertainty and whichever side wins, let us accept the result,” said Johari.