Uneasy pause in US-Iran conflict

Trump appears to have backed off from escalation with US munitions and interceptors running low

THERE has been no shortage of reasons to justify the United States’ Operation Epic Fury against Iran, which has led to catastrophic global economic repercussions.

It started with Iran’s supposed imminent threat against the United States, but the excuse soon shifted to stopping the Islamic republic from becoming a nuclear power.

The next touted grounds was regime change; to rouse Iranians to overthrow their government.

Today, the ironic rationale for continuing the war is the rising number of Americans killed and wounded at US bases in the Gulf states, from where Iran is being attacked.

Whatever the pretext, US President Donald Trump’s fickle leadership and ­handling of the war has been characterised by his impulsive decisions and a lack of strategic foresight.

Alternatively, it also lends credence to the belief that the war serves as a convenient distraction from Trump’s domestic issues, overshadowing his links to the Epstein files, which used to dominate media headlines before the war.

But tragically, it has led to a situation where the world is suffering fuel price spikes and volatility, with spirally shipping costs, causing drastic impacts on all industries, including food production.

The US itself has ended up in a precarious position while Iran, which has lost more than 17,000 people since the start of war, appears to have the upper hand by dictating the terms of engagement.

Militarily, the United States is paying a heavy price. As Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth testified in the Senate last week, the conflict has already cost a whopping US$37.5bil (RM153.1bil) so far.

This includes US$758mil (RM3.06bil) a day for munitions and interceptors, US$30mil (RM122.5mil) daily in jet fighter sorties, bomber runs, aerial refuelling, tanker and cargo aircraft and US$15mil (RM61.27mil) per day in naval operations for three nuclear-powered aircraft carrier strike groups.

The biggest and most humiliating costs comprise the loss of high-tech weaponry, including four F-15E fighter jets costing US$100mil (RM408.49mil) each, 24 MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles at US$30mil (RM122.65mil) each, one high-altitude long endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) MQ-4C Triton, seven KC-135 Strato-tankers, one F-35A fighter jet, one E-3 Sentry early warning and control aircraft commonly known as AWACS, two MC-130J military transport planes and one HH-60W combat rescue helicopter.

The total number of aircraft destroyed or damaged amounted to 42.

Also lost were four AN/TPY-2 radars costing US$485mil (RM1.981bil) each and one E-7A radar aircraft costing US$700mil (RM2.85bil).

As for damage to the US economy, the toll has been estimated to be as high as US$210bil (RM857.3bil), mostly through disruptions to trade and increased fuel prices. Americans paid USD$68bil (RM277.6bil) in extra cost for petrol and diesel over the past five months.

The increase was mostly caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 25% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas used to flow.

And it is going to be much worse now that a new front of the war has been opened at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which means “Gate of Tears” in Arabic, in the Red Sea.

The strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, straddles Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa on the other.

Iran-backed Houthis, who control north-western Yemen, have barred Saudi Arabian ships and oil tankers from the strait and have also launched missile attacks on oil facilities of Saudi oil giant Aramco in the coastal cities of Yanbu and Jizan, further disrupting global oil exports and supply.

The Houthis had accused Saudi Arabia of “blatant aggression” after the latter bombed the Sanaa airport runway two weeks ago to stop an Iranian plane from landing there.

In retaliation, the Houthis fired ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia. On July 20, the Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and the Saudis launched air strikes on the Houthi-held city of Hodeidah. That war is still raging.

A shutdown of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would be double whammy for the entire energy industry as well as global freight, raising prices higher and disrupting logistics everywhere.

The combined disruption could threaten about 30% of the global container shipping, increasing global trade costs of up to US$10bil (RM10.64bil) a day.

Meanwhile, just as the world was bracing for the escalation of the conflict, a strange twist emerged – the United States stopped the strikes against Iran on July 24 for the first time after 13 consecutive nights.

And what has been described as an “uneasy lull” is still in place.

According to The New York Times, Trump shelved plans for a major escalation after senior advisers told him that the Pentagon’s stockpile of interceptors was running dangerously low.

Apparently, Trump’s advisers laid out five other reasons for the restraint, the main one being that the US’ Gulf state allies were angry at having to bear the brunt for the US attacks.

Trump was also warned that the region was facing an all-out war, and the global economy was already in serious trouble with the energy crisis reaching worrying proportions.

According to reports, many of Trump’s advisers, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner, believe that continuing negotiations and applying economic pressure on Iran over a longer period of time was a more viable alternative.

Surprisingly, Iran has also suspended its retaliatory strikes after the US military held fire. Will this fraught lull in fighting last? Given Trump’s erratic nature, one can never tell.

Media consultant M. Veera Pandiyan likes this quote from Ernest Hemingway: “Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime.” The views expressed here are the writer’s own.