Intense fight for Malay votes

IT is supposed to be “socially distanced” campaigning for the Melaka state election with candidates barred from making house visits and holding ceramah, but the strict standard operating procedures were already broken during nomination on Monday.

Under the latest Election Commission (EC) rules, campaigning is largely restricted to social media. Walkabouts are also banned, but candidates can talk to voters from their vehicles, using loudspeakers, with police approval.

Posters are allowed, but pamphlets can only be distributed through letter boxes by three campaign workers maintaining physical distancing of one metre. Election workers must also undergo Covid-19 tests using Rapid Antigen home test kits every two days until polling on Nov 20.

With 112 contenders and a throng of supporters from Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan in the state until polling day, enforcement of the new SOP will be difficult, especially in rural areas where rivalry for the Malay/Muslim votes is most intense.

The battle for the 28 constituencies involves three six-cornered fights, five-sided contests in five, four-cornered fights in nine and trilateral bouts in 11. Melaka has 495,196 registered voters.

Umno, the lynchpin of Barisan, is facing Perikatan’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, PAS and Gerakan in 19 seats and also Pakatan candidates from PKR, DAP and Amanah.

Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra) is making its debut in five seats while Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional (Iman) is contesting one.

Adding to the heady mix are 22 Independents, including Datuk Norhizam Hassan Baktee, the ex-DAP incumbent for Pengkalan Batu, who was among the four who caused the collapse of the Pakatan state government in March 2020 by defecting to Umno. He was also instrumental in toppling the Barisan-Bersatu administration.

Norhizam, along with former chief minister Datuk Seri Idris Haron (BN-Sungai Udang), Datuk Nor Azman Hassan (BN-Pantai Kundor) and Datuk Noor Effandi Ahmad (Bersatu-Telok Mas) withdrew support for Chief Minister Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali on Oct 4. The state assembly was dissolved a day later, paving the way for the state election.

PKR chief Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s endorsement of the defections triggered a fissure in Pakatan. PKR and Amanah welcomed the move but DAP, initially adamant that it would not accept all four “frogs” to hop into the coalition, later only opposed Norhizam as a Pakatan candidate.

Idris is standing in his hometown of Asahan under the Pakatan-PKR ticket, Nor Azman in Pantai Kundor (Pakatan-Amanah) while Noor Effandi was not fielded as a Pakatan candidate.

Asahan is among the hot seats with a six-cornered fight between Idris, Fairul Nizam Roslan (BN-Umno), newcomer Dhanesh Basil (Perikatan-Gerakan) and three Independents – Mohd Akhir Ayob, Azmar Abdul Hamid and Mohd Noor Salleh.

Six-sided contests are also on in Gadek and Duyong.

Gadek incumbent G. Saminathan (Pakatan-DAP) is being challenged by former Idris aide P. Shanmugam (BN-MIC), Mohd Amir Fitri Muharam (Perikatan-Bersatu), Laila Norinda Maon (Putra) and two independents – Azafen Amin and lawyer Mohan Singh.

Duyong incumbent Damian Yeo Shen Li (Pakatan-DAP) is facing Mohd Noor Helmy Abdul Halem (BN-Umno), Datuk Kamarudin Sidek (Perikatan-PAS) Mohd Faizal Amzah (Putra) and two independents – Gan Tian Soh and Muhamad Hafiz Ishak.

DAP is contesting eight seats and is expected to win at least six, with Bemban the trickiest to retain.

The party dropped former assemblyman Datuk Dr Wong Fort Pin and replaced him with state party chief Datuk Tey Kok Kiew.

The four other candidates are Datuk Koh Chin Han (BN-MCA), Dr Mohd Yadzil Yaakub (Perikatan-Bersatu), and two independents – Azmi Kamis and Datuk Ng Choon Koon, a local and former Barisan assemblyman who has wide grassroots support in the constituency.

But this election is mostly about Malay voters. For the sake of Malay political power, would they pick Umno, which they forsook in GE14? Or would they go with Perikatan comprising Bersatu and PAS? Understandably, there is much anxiety among supporters of both blocs that Malay votes would be split, resulting in a Pakatan victory.

PAS has not won a seat in Melaka since 1974 when the party was a Barisan component. It contested 25 seats in GE14 and lost all.

Its die-hard followers may be advantageous to Perikatan, especially against Bersatu’s relative scarcity of grassroots support. The decision to contest under the Perikatan banner has also irked some supporters.

There is also confusion over the Muafakat Nasional alliance formed with Umno to win the Malay-Muslim vote when Pakatan was the federal government. The leadership’s equivocal statement that it was still open to working with Umno for GE15 has added to the muddle.

The choice of chief minister is also a key factor for victory. Umno advisor, former PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak, has insisted that Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali is the coalition’s sole Barisan nominee although talk is rife that ex-state assembly speaker Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh should not be ruled out.

Rauf is facing deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Mas Ermieyati Samsudin in Tanjung Bidara. The Masjid Tanah MP, a former Puteri Umno chief who defected to Bersatu in 2018, is speculated to be Perikatan’s choice for CM.

Former Paya Rumput assemblyman Datuk Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen, who is standing in Telok Mas, has also been mentioned as a possible CM if Perikatan wins.

As for Pakatan, DAP wants former CM Adly Zahari as the CM, but Anwar declined to name him, giving the impression that Idris also stood a chance or perhaps even MP for Hang Tuah Jaya, Datuk Seri Shamsul Iskandar, his trusted lieutenant in Melaka who is contesting in Paya Rumput.

The decision has not gone down well among supporters.

Media consultant M. Veera Pandiyan likes this quote by Hubert H. Humphrey: “We believe that to err is human. To blame it on someone else is politics.” The views expressed here are the writer’s own.