IT’S the season of the coalition merry-go-round again.
I am by now old enough to not be as judgy in making that statement as I may have once been.
Nevertheless, this fact remains something anyone seeking to improve Malaysian politics in the long run needs to be aware of.
For the longest time, Barisan Nasional was the only major contender in Malaysian politics, and intra-coalition dynamics were as important as inter-coalition dynamics.
Some of the earliest anti-Barisan coalitions include Gagasan Rakyat and Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah in the 1990’s.
The first coalition that might be vaguely recognisable and included a joint manifesto was Barisan Alternatif (BA), consisting of Parti Keadilan Nasional, DAP, PAS, and Parti Rakyat Malaysia. BA was formed in 1999, and dissolved in 2004.
Its successor, the similar Pakatan Rakyat was formed in 2008, and lasted a little longer, dissolving in 2015.
Then came their successor, Pakatan Harapan, which was roughly the same, and included the splinter parties Amanah and Bersatu – featuring a historic and somewhat shocking alliance between former nemeses Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and former prime minster Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
And then came the Sheraton Move in 2020, which led to a period of great fragmentation and instability, with so many shifting alliances that it is honestly a little bit boring to list them out one by one.
These two years of unprecedented political instability in Malaysia finally ended in 2022, when Pakatan entered into another historic alliance, this time with Barisan, to form the government.
Whatever else, we must give Anwar credit for keeping Malaysian politics somewhat stable and “boring” for these last four years, at least.
The Johor state elections however sent out signals that were clearly amplified in Negri Sembilan.
And these signals have made it glaringly obvious that the coalitions of today will not be the coalitions of tomorrow.
In Malacca, it seems that Barisan can almost go solo.
I won’t pretend to have done substantial statistical analysis, but the general feeling seems to be that Barisan can replicate this nationally, where just a simple electoral pact with PAS may enable them to win the peninsular, ally with East Malaysian parties, and form the federal government.
Perhaps one small factor may be how many seats DAP will be able to retain, and how this may affect the eventual electoral math.
But it was quite a noteworthy result in Johor, where for the first time in a very long time, MCA outperformed DAP.
Rounding up the list of potential unlikely alliances, we may see Bersatu make a return to Pakatan.
If I had to hazard a guess, this would not sit particularly well with non-Malay voters still feeling the sting of the Sheraton Move. I’m not entirely sure what value Bersatu brings to any coalition really, at this rate.
If PKR is not careful and proactive in taking extremely drastic action between now and the general elections, the same may eventually be said of them.
It is worth noting who exactly has left PKR for Bersama. Those in the business for a long time may be able to discern a pattern between those who have left, and those who are staying on.
I doubt anyone is looking forward to a return to the chaos of Malaysian politics in the aftermath of the Sheraton Move.
A decisive victory may save us from that, but if we end up with a hung parliament, the great game of musical chairs shall begin again.
And in this game, the music playing sounds painfully familiar.
The only “ideological question is whether a coalition can “work with” one of the two extremes: DAP and PAS.
This question has dominated coalition building for decades now, with both parties yo-yoing between extreme and moderate positions, depending on what is most politically expedient to them.
Their allies essentially do the same.
I’ll confess I do miss the days when DAP and PAS were actually in the same coalition. This was a unique opportunity to really deal a decisive blow against the tiresome old goat that is identity politics in Malaysia.
Unfortunately, not enough work was done to really replace identity politics with something substantial and truly game changing – work that could have made such a coalition sustainable.
And as has happened time and time and time again, when there is a vacuum, Malaysians just revert to that same old goat.
If I had to hazard a guess: Unless Anwar and team get the right kind of help to come up with a badly needed, game-changing second wind, Barisan will lead the next government, and Bersama or Bersama-like elements will form the core of the next opposition.
Ideally, Barisan will take this opportunity to redefine identity politics.
I know it’s tempting to hold on to the decades old formula of one race per party combined into one coalition, but I think the honest answer is that this formula is not healthy for Malaysia in the long run.
We also need a party that can provide real improvement on the integrity and corruption front.
Similar advice applies to those who find themselves in the opposition the next round.
Business as usual will only result in the same old sad, unstable drift of perpetual musical chairs.
To introduce a breath of genuinely fresh air, the political parties of the future need to be about more than just personalities and old tropes of identity politics – it needs to be driven by a truly rakyat-oriented mission, and have the deepest roots possible in a sincere desire to make things better – roots that survive and are bigger than ever-changing political winds.
Putting in the time and effort to really build such roots is no doubt challenging, but I do believe that these efforts can build the kind of next-generation political movements that can break free of old, corrupt paradigms, and contribute much more to the wellbeing, harmony, and prosperity of Malaysians in the long run.
Nathaniel Tan is a strategic communications consultant. He tweets @NatAsasi and can be reached at nat@engage.my. The views expressed here are solely the writer’s own.
