“WHY does the dog wag its tail?”
“Because the dog is smarter than its tail. If the tail was smarter than the dog, the tail would wag the dog.”
This whole war started because Israel was hellbent, come what may, to begin hostilities against Iran – dragging America and Americans deep into a war they clearly cannot “win”.
And now, any attempt to end the war and move towards peace is so obviously being deliberately sabotaged by the Zionists.
America – the world’s most powerful nation (for now at least) – must ask itself, is it the dog or the tail? How is it that a nation of 343 million is being “wagged” so blatantly by a nation of 10 million?
Given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s commitment to warmongering come hell or high water and dragging America down with him, the rest of the world should likely prepare for one thing: prolonged volatility.
The Malaysian government is showing some signs of acknowledging that we are in for some really strong headwinds in the weeks and months ahead, but – without resorting to panic – there is probably still room to increase the sense of urgency in a manner that is proportional to the crisis at hand.
In short, we would do well to heed the old adage: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
This is the only logical response to a world where almost within the short space of 24 hours, American President Donald Trump can basically threaten a nuclear-level genocide, then agree to a ceasefire, and then deny that Lebanon was part of that ceasefire – throwing the whole hard-won agreement into doubt.
Simple extrapolation suggests that there is more of this breakneck back and forth ahead of us, not less.
A negotiated settlement is only likely when there is some degree of alignment in terms of interests. It seems that as difficult as it was to get alignment between Iran and the US, an inability to form any kind of alignment with the one regional spoiler – Israel – makes everything impossible.
If America does not bring its dog-wagging tail under control soon, it will become more and more likely that the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 will be to America what the Suez Canal was to Britain in 1956.
When Britain failed spectacularly in its attempt to take the Suez Canal by force after it had been nationalised by Egypt, Britain’s international standing was irrevocably destroyed.
The Suez incident obliterated any doubt that the power of the world’s dominant empire, upon which the sun famously never set, had crumbled into dust, relegating Britain into almost a third-tier global power.
If America does not stop letting Israel lead it by the nose down this path towards ignominy, it may very well meet the same fate.
Where America once controlled the mighty petrodollar, Iran’s establishment of a toll on the Strait of Hormuz may be beginning to fundamentally reshape nothing less than the entire global financial system.
This petrodollar system was predicated on America providing Gulf states with the umbrella of military protection. In the space of a few months, the holes in this umbrella have been exposed for the entire world (and the Gulf states in particular) to see, leading all to question: What is the value, if any, of American military “protection”? This question may pave the way for a complete geopolitical realignment.
Where once American military might was the mythical stuff of legend, the whole world is now watching it break against Iran’s decentralised defences – ironically enough, a true David and Goliath moment.
The downing of an American F-15 fighter jet, an A-10 Warthog, and other possible aircraft in early April dispelled notions of untouchability.
Earlier, we also watched the mighty aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford practically fall apart due to overextended deployment, sewage plumbing so faulty it basically rendered the ship inoperable, rumoured internal sabotage, and the collapse of onboard morale – forcing it to exit the theatre of operations.
Should Trump decide to go further and try to invade Kharg Island (Iran’s highly fortified primary oil export hub), the military fallout could cement the end of American empire.
It is almost beyond imagination, how Trump could imagine holding a little island 30km off the coast of Iran when Iran has been able to strike targets throughout the entire Persian Gulf for months.
Trying to resupply and defend Kharg Island after occupying it (if they can even get that far) would be a nightmare for the Americans, and likely result in countless deaths – an outcome nobody should be hoping for.
Geography being what it is, maybe even Malaysia could probably defeat America in conventional military terms if it sought to invade Penang and hold it for a long time (as long as we learned the importance of a decentralised military).
Even America’s image as the perennial “good guys” in any armed conflict that was burnt into our young imaginations through countless movies and TV shows is now being upended.
The slew of pro-Iranian artificial intelligence-generated propaganda – notably from Iran and China – has opened up a completely unprecedented front in this latest era of modern warfare.
Particularly memorable ones include Chinese “catfu” style videos, with one depicting an American eagle being manipulated by a brain-sucking squid into shooting a “Meowatollah” Persian cat and stealing its oil.
Then there are the countless Lego videos, with one connecting the conflict today all the way back to a defining moment in Shia history: the battle of Karbala.
Perhaps one of the most moving videos is entitled Vengeance for All, where the current conflict is framed as payback for atrocities going as far back as Native American genocide, slavery, the WWII bombing of Hiroshima, the Vietnam War, all the way to the ongoing genocide in Palestine, and the exploitation of underaged girls on “Epstein island”.
In the last two examples, figures like Trump and Netanyahu are implied to be worshippers of Baal, an interesting choice as Baal is a key “false god” in both Christianity and Judaism, and is visually similar to depictions of Satan.
Working in communications myself, I could not help but be awed by the degree to which so many of these videos are able to strike such a deep emotional chord.
Make no mistake, the regime in Iran is not by any measure all around “good guys”.
Human rights abuses and brutal authoritarianism are all well documented there.
In fact, the regime was perhaps closest to collapse just two months or so before American bombs started falling – especially given how intolerable internal economic crises were becoming in Iran for the average Iranian.
Ironically, American bombing may be the biggest reason that Iran’s regime is still in place.
It is all indeed a truth that is, day by day, stranger than fiction.
For the rest of us, we can start by counting our blessings that we are not caught directly in the middle of all this.
After we’re done counting those, we should start counting the ways in which smart people should be preparing to weather this storm in the long run.
Felda’s recent introduction of B100 biodiesel, a 100% palm oil-based fuel, is a good step in this direction.
We need to keep innovating and adapting to stay a few steps ahead of this rapidly changing world, in which anything and everything could be in the midst of major paradigm shifts.
Nathaniel Tan is a strategic communications consultant. He can be reached at nat@engage.my. The views expressed here are solely the writer’s own.
