Focusing on women

GOING into the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on Thursday in America, I feel that there are two issues that Demo-crats should press the hardest on: a woman’s right to choose, and who Donald Trump is as a person.

Both of these issues afford keen insights into what the political ecosystem has evolved to become, and are reflective of some key political trends worldwide that should be examined more closely.

Disaffectation with the political ecosystem is a global trend. Many people around the world do not feel that politicians and political parties reflect their aspirations in a meaningful way. Instead, politicians and political parties are viewed as people who are distant, and who live and operate in an orbit so far away from the average person, that they have no relevance to our day-to-day lives.

The degree to which this is true in America is demonstrated by voter turnout. According to data going back to 1932, voter turnout has ranged from a low of 49% to a high of about 63%.

In other words, barely half of Americans even bother to vote. The last elections in 2020 saw America’s third highest turnout ever, but this was only 61.5%. It was also the first time since at least 1976 in which more people voted for the winning candidate than who did not vote at all. In every election before that, there were more people who did not vote, than who voted for the winning candidate.

This is shocking. More importantly, it means that given how recent US elections have been decided by razor thin majorities, the potential for tapping this demographic to help ensure victory cannot possibly be understated.

There is no shortage of drama, high emotions, and conflict in the political ecosystem. This ecosystem includes media networks that go into a frenzy over every little conflict and issue within and between political parties.

The question we should be asking is: do people care, though?

The data seems to suggest that enough people care to keep these media networks in business, but not enough to push up voter turn out percentage above the low 60s.

In a 2020 study sponsored by the Knight Foundation (which supports journalism and the arts), “The Untold Story of American Non-Voters”, the top reasons listed by Americans for not voting included “Don’t like the candidates” (17%), “Don’t know the candidates” (8%), and “Vote doesn’t matter” (12%).

Note that the biggest response was still simply about “liking” the candidates. The political ecosystem includes pundits and academics – many of whom would loathe to think that something so simple as “likeability” should be a key factor. After all, if it were as simple as making a candidate likeable, why would we need pundits and academics?

When Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz to be her running mate, there was a lot of attention on how Walz famously called Trump and his running mate JD Vance “weird”. Walz asked questions like: “Have you ever seen Trump laugh?” and “Can you picture Trump coming home after a long day of work and playing with his dog like a normal American?”

This stood in contrast to Walz’s own image as an affable, dad next door and high school teacher and coach. It even stood in contrast to how Harris was brought up by a single working immigrant mum, and worked her way through college by taking summer jobs at McDonald’s.

A few (especially those deep in the political ecosystem) have criticised Harris for being light on policy. But if 17% of non-voters are citing “Don’t like the candidates” as reasons for why they’re not voting, perhaps policy isn’t what campaigns should focus on.

One policy issue that the Democratic campaign has correctly not shied away from, however, is abortion. In the aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling that allowed states to ban abortion, Wikipedia states: “ While many American politicians oppose legal abortion access, the anti-abortion movement has mostly made its advances through elite-driven support; among the electorate, the movement’s positions are deeply unpopular. Polling has indicated that many Republican voters identify as pro-choice and support abortion access.”

This is a classic case of a worldwide trend – political parties that are far too wrapped up in their own ecosystem, beholden to very particular interests and interest groups that are themselves greatly disconnected from everyday people. People who are deep in the Republican party ecosystem care a lot about abortion, as well as other issues like gun rights. But do they accurately reflect the concerns of the wider voting public?

Abortion is something of a dog whistle issue for hardcore Republicans, and within certain key communities, there can be a great deal of shame surrounding it.

It’s quite clear to see, though, that a woman’s right to make her own decisions about the healthcare of her own body is something that is deeply relevant to millions of American women across the country, wherever they live and however the people around them vote. This speaks directly to the earlier 12% of non-voters who felt their vote “did not matter”.

The other interesting thing about parties veering off into their own niche ecosystem is the ascendancy of Trump within the Republican party. Since 2016, Trump has absolutely crushed any kind of challenge to his power within the party. He is practically a god, and (until now at least), by far the most popular and powerful leader the party has seen in a long time. This is because Trump knows exactly how to rile up the far right extremists that can exert the most power within the party. He knows how to appeal to people who will take the time and trouble to be a part of that party, and is thus extremely successful – but only within that ecosystem.

Outside that ecosystem, there’s no denying that Trump has had some appeal, especially in 2016, when he was the disruptive new kid on the block. People can often get behind a rebel looking to shake things up.

In 2024, though, especially after Harris took over from Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, Trump is looking more and more like a confused, petulant old man, whining incessantly that someone took away his favourite pudding for dessert. This image stands side by side with Trump’s abysmal record as an adulterer, someone who sleeps with porn stars and then pays them hush money, his unforgettable remarks about grabbing women with impunity, and the overall creepy, dirty old man vibes he gives off.

Based on all of the above, it would seem that the key target demographic for the Democrats going into the DNC should be women, and women who did not vote in the past.

And their key message should centre around the simplest and most basic rights – a woman’s right to choose and make her own healthcare decisions, a woman’s right to live free from harassment from creepy old men like Donald Trump, and a woman’s ability to sit at the very head of every decision-making table, including the one in the Oval Office.

Nathaniel Tan is strategic communications consultant and can be reached at nat@engage.my. The views expressed here are his own.