Westminster chaos – will Malaysia go the way of the UK?

JOKE found on Twitter on British politics: “My son has lived through four chancellors, three home secretaries, two prime ministers and two monarchs. He’s four months old.”

This was soon updated with: “Soon to be three prime ministers”

When the Malaysian Parliament was dissolved, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong somewhat unexpectedly released a statement expressing disappointment as well as his hope that the elections will bring stability to our politics and governance.

I’m sure this sentiment and hope is shared by a great number of Malaysians.

The thing is, though, sadly, our Westminster system of “democracy” offers absolutely zero guarantees that elections will bring stability. In fact, it often results in the exact opposite.

Surely we need look no further for proof of this than the absolute chaos that has been engulfing British politics, arguably since about 2010. Outgoing prime minister Liz Truss has already set the record for having the shortest term as PM in history (45 days). The previous record holder, George Canning, was in office for more than twice as long (119 days) – a period cut short only by his death.

Watching the unravelling of Truss’ government with political disaster after political disaster was not unlike watching a train wreck in slow, excruciating motion.

I have written previously about the significance of how Truss was chosen in the wake of Boris Johnson’s resignation – a process that will be repeated after she left. Firstly, a candidate must get the support of at least 100 Conservative Members of Parliament. Then, those Conservative MPs will vote the field down to two and finally choose from those final two candidates.

In the last round, the final two candidates were Truss and former chancellor Rishi Sunak, with party members eventually choosing Truss.

If you’ve even seen just one or two videos of Truss trying to form coherent sentences, it is unlikely to be a massive surprise that her government imploded (though the speed at which this was done remains remarkable).

So how did Conservative MPs and party members choose so poorly?

Not wanting to repeat myself, the short answer is because the West-minster system incentivises serving the political interests of the few rather than the general welfare of the many.

Will Malaysia face similar chaos after the 15th General Election?

If Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob is not reappointed as PM, then like Truss, he will hold the record for the shortest serving PM in Malaysian history. The previous record holder is his immediate predecessor, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Malaysia too, not unlike its former colonial masters, seems to be entering a period of increasing political chaos. Some would argue this started with the Sheraton Move, others may argue it started in 2018. Regardless, I suppose most are curious about what happens after Nov 19.

There is definitely potential for an equally hung Parliament, given that we are still on track for a three-coalition all-out battle. Need-less to say, some will continue to push for an “everyone against Barisan Nasional” coalition. The viability of this remains questionable.

When I searched my own feelings, I realised I could accept some sort of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as PM, Muhyiddin as DPM option – but could not accept any kind of Cabinet or alliance with Datuk Seri Azmin Ali in it.

So I suppose that puts many of us back at square one. There are probably voters with similar feelings, just replacing the three names above with any combination of squabbling leaders at this point.

In a three-way fight, I would personally give Barisan a slight edge over the rest. It is worth noting, though, that it is not important how big the margin with which Barisan (or any other coalition) wins a particular seat – it only matters how many seats they win.

Therefore, if Barisan wins, say, with 34% of the vote against, say, 33% and 33% from the other two coalitions in, say, 60% of the seats, they will still control 60% of Parliament – even with the popular vote being so evenly distributed.

I don’t personally consider Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) a serious contender, though I’m sure Tun Mahathir Mohamad will be “inspired” by the example of the much younger Boris Johnson who is also thinking of staging a comeback – barely months after being forced to resign in shame.

The question for Barisan of course is whether they will squabble about who should be the PM candidate or not.

If there is no clear winner in Parliament, though, it would appear that anything will be fair game – even such outlandish things as an Umno-DAP coalition or some such thing.

The problem with these marriages of convenience (a label which some argue would apply to the 2018 Pakatan Harapan government) however, is that they tend to be built like a house of cards – liable to fall at the whim or fancy of any cavalier collective of disruptive MPs.

In the UK, Truss was brought down by extremely controversial policies and apparently a total inability to coordinate even a barely functional of Cabinets.

In comparison, leading up to the Sheraton Move in 2020, the only “problems” in the Malaysian government were arguably all about personality politics, feudal power struggles, and the unyielding inability of one man to hand power over to another.

In other words, we seem to have a lower threshold with regards to “reasons to topple the government” – a somewhat worrying fact if GE15 ends up with an evenly distributed hung Parliament.

Everybody wants stability, prosperity, harmony, growth, and all those wonderful things.

It is probably time, however, to fully acknowledge that the current design and incentive structures of our “democracy” basically do not incentivise actors to truly work collaboratively towards such results.

Westminster democracy is not working in Westminster – where it is at least native and not a colonial legacy.

Why on earth should we cling on to it instead of innovating better systems that actually incentivise our leaders to work together for our common good instead of spending all their time and energy bickering?

Nathaniel Tan can be reached at [e-mail]. The views expressed here are solely the writer’s own.