Brazil's Lula regains narrow edge over Bolsonaro in BTG/Nexus poll


Brazil's first lady Rosangela "Janja" da Silva joins supporters during a cultural parade backing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for reelection in Brasilia, Brazil, September 13, 2026. REUTERS/Mateus Bonomi

SAO PAULO, Sept ⁠14 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ⁠regained a slim lead over right-wing Senator Flavio ‌Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for next month's election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday, though the race remained statistically tied.

Last ​week, the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed ⁠Bolsonaro numerically ahead of ⁠Lula for the first time since March, helping Brazilian assets ⁠rally ‌as the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is considered more market-friendly.

• If there ⁠was a runoff, Lula would receive 47% ​of voter support ‌compared with 46% for Senator Bolsonaro, the latest ⁠poll said.

• ​A September 8 survey had Bolsonaro leading Lula by 46% to 45%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead ⁠with 42% of the votes, followed ​by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%), the poll said.

• The previous first-round survey had Lula at ⁠39%, Bolsonaro at 35% and Cury at 9%.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners ​advance to a runoff on October ⁠25.

• Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 11 to ​13. The poll has a margin ‌of error of 2 percentage ​points.

(Reporting by Michael Susin in Barcelona and Gabriel Araujo in Sao Paulo, Editing by Louise Heavens)

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