ANKARA, Aug. 19 (Xinhua) -- Türkiye's tourism industry is facing a challenging summer as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, domestic inflation and currency appreciation converge to create an uncertain outlook.
Analysts noted that the escalation of the Middle East crisis has affected travel sentiment across the eastern Mediterranean, with its impact particularly evident in Türkiye's coastal resort markets.
While the country remains outside the conflict zone and its major airports and resorts have continued normal operations, potential visitors have grown more cautious, leading to a pronounced shift toward last-minute bookings.
"The biggest problem is not that tourists have stopped coming to Antalya," said Volkan Yorulmaz, a tourism professional based in the Mediterranean resort city.
"The problem is that many people are waiting until the last moment to decide. That makes it difficult for hotels and tour operators to plan their season and forces them to compete more aggressively on price," Yorulmaz noted.
Discounts have helped stimulate late demand, but they intensify price competition and squeeze profit margins.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical shock has also directly disrupted source markets. In March, airspace closures and flight interruptions following escalated Iran-U.S.-Israel tensions led to sharp declines in visitor arrivals from several Gulf states.
"It was not only the flight cancellations that affected travel," noted Murat Toktas, a tourism representative from the Black Sea region. "Rising costs also discouraged travellers, as airlines increased fares to offset higher fuel expenses, leading fewer people to travel to Türkiye."
Türkiye entered 2026 with ambitious goals, aiming to surpass its record 65.2-billion-U.S.-dollar revenue from 64 million visitors in 2025 with a 68-billion-dollar target. Yet official data showed that the first half has delivered just 25.8 million arrivals, down 2.3 percent year-on-year, and softer revenues, leaving the second half under heavy pressure to salvage the annual forecast.
Earlier official projections of strong growth from key markets, including Russia and the United States, now appear less certain in light of the disruption.
Beyond geopolitical shock, domestic economic pressures are also eroding the country's traditional cost advantage.
Consumer prices rose about 31.8 percent year-on-year in July, while the Turkish lira has appreciated in real terms against the dollar and euro. As a result, foreign visitors now find accommodation, dining, and other holiday expenses more expensive compared to rival Mediterranean destinations.
"Türkiye is dealing with two different problems at the same time," Toktas said. "Geopolitical uncertainty reduces demand, while high domestic costs make it harder to respond with lower prices. This combination can create challenges."
The strain is particularly severe for smaller, family-run establishments, which lack the capacity of large all-inclusive resorts to offer deep discounts without incurring losses, he added.
Industry reports indicate that aggressive discounting by larger properties is contributing to a broader decline in coastal accommodation prices, a trend that may boost occupancy but undermine profitability.
Despite these headwinds, industry professionals do not foresee a collapse. Türkiye's diversified source markets, extensive hotel capacity, strong airline connectivity, and established international reputation provide important buffers.
"The 68-billion-dollar target is still possible, but it has become harder," Toktas noted.
