PETALING JAYA: For the first time in years, Asean has shown its capacity to contain an internal conflict before it risked drawing in global superpowers, highlighting the bloc’s growing maturity and potential for self-governed diplomacy.
The recent ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia—following rising tensions along their shared border—marks a significant moment for the regional grouping.
Though external powers such as China and the United States (US) provided important backing, Taylor’s University School of Law and Governance senior lecturer Dr Julia Roknifard pointed to Asean’s internal leadership, particularly Malaysia’s role as the current Asean Chair, as key to defusing the crisis.
Roknifard said Anwar’s administration is marking a return of Malaysia on the international stage that has not been seen for decades now.
She said the most important lesson from the conflict is that Asean succeeded in preventing the situation from escalating into a proxy war.
“This Thai-Cambodia conflict could have turned into the next Ukraine with competing superpowers supplying weapons to one side or the other, dragging it out and destabilising the whole region.
“Such an escalation is always dangerously possible and the fact that Asean could contain and defuse it is indeed a huge achievement,” Roknifard told The Star.
Malaysia took on the role of mediator in line with its Asean chairmanship and longstanding principle that conflicts among member states should be resolved internally. Roknifard said this principle was honoured in full during the ceasefire process.
She also highlighted the significance of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s personal involvement, which she described as a marked departure from the approach of previous Malaysian leaders.
“Recent PMs seem to have shied away from playing a more active role in international affairs but Anwar has from the start been consistent in speaking on and engaging with international players.
“His administration is marking a return of Malaysia on the international stage that has not been seen for decades now and there is no denying that his personal involvement played a role in securing the ceasefire,” she said.
She added that Malaysia’s use of quiet diplomacy—often characterised by discreet, non-confrontational negotiation—also contributed to the success of the mediation.
While not always effective, Roknifard said this approach remains well suited to the South-East Asian context.
“This is after all a collection of small economies that do not have the resources to engage in large scale economic warfare or actual kinetic warfare.
“They all understand that speaking quietly to each other will be more effective. This has in fact underscored Asean's decades long success of avoiding intra-regional conflict.”
However, while the ceasefire marks progress, she cautioned against overstating Asean’s cohesion.
“The regional bloc remains divided on key issues, including trade relations with the US, the South China Sea disputes, and the prolonged Myanmar crisis. Asean is still fragmented along many lines.
“The US tariffs are a good example. Instead of negotiating as a bloc, individual members are making their own deals, allowing the US to play one off against another.”
On whether the ceasefire might falter, she said this would not reflect a failure on Anwar’s part.
“He said he would get an immediate ceasefire, and he got that. It is up to the actual warring parties to honour the commitment they have made.
“If anyone can be said to have failed, it would be Cambodia and Thailand—for not only failing to keep to their own agreement, but also failing to respect those who worked hard to facilitate the peace talks.”
Looking ahead, Roknifard urged Asean to develop mechanisms such as its own peacekeepers and a formal crisis response centre to institutionalise its conflict resolution capabilities.
“There has to be a system of voting that will take into account the views of qualified states for intervention, not to threaten the sovereignty of any state but to precisely help in mediation, protection of civilians and disaster response. This is the next logical step for Asean,” she said.
Meanwhile, it has been reported that following its successful mediation of the Cambodia-Thailand border truce, Malaysia may now seek to apply a similar conflict resolution model to one of Asean’s most intractable challenges—the ongoing armed conflict in Myanmar.
According to former Indian Ambassador to Thailand Anil Wadhwa, Malaysia is expected to do well to ride on its success in the Thai-Cambodia conflict and try the Asean mediation between the military regime and the National Unity Government (NUG) and other disparate groups.
