Aged nation sooner than later

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is set to become an aged nation sooner than anticipated, with projections indicating that over 17% of its population will be 60 years or older by 2040, according to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).

Chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said currently, 11.6% of the population, or 3.9 million people, fall within this age group.

By 2040, this figure is expected to rise to 17.3%, or 6.4 million people, out of a projected total population of 37.1 million, he added.

“By 2057, Malaysia will reach the super-aged society category with 20.5% projected to be over the age of 60,” Mohd Uzir said when launching DOSM’s MyAgeing Dashboard through an online press conference yesterday.

He said this shift reflects a growing demographic challenge as the country grapples with an ageing population.

The United Nations defines an ageing society as one where over 7% of the population is aged 65 or older.

An aged society is reached when this proportion exceeds 14%, while a super-aged society is defined by over 20% of the population being aged 65 and above.

Malaysia is already classified as an ageing nation and is expected to become an aged society within the next 16 years.

DOSM’s MyAgeing Dashboard was launched to provide comprehensive data on this demographic transition, offering insights into Malaysia’s ageing trends and how they compare to other nations.

In 1970, only 5.5% of the population was 60 or older, while 44.5% were under the age of 14.

Fast forward to 2024, Mohd Uzir said the percentage of children under 14 has halved to 22.2%, while those aged 60 and above have more than doubled to 11.6%.

“By 2050, 23.4% of the Malaysian population will be over the age of 60,” he said.

Geographically, Perak currently has the highest percentage of older citizens, with 14.9% aged 60 and above, followed by Sarawak at 13.4% and Kedah at 13.3%.

Several districts also stand out for their ageing population, including Lubok Antu in Sarawak, where 21.8% of residents are aged 60 and above.

Other districts with high percentages include Sri Aman, Sarawak (18.7%), Kampar, Perak (18.5%) and Hilir Perak, Perak (16.7%).

The ageing trend in Malaysia, according to Mohd Uzir, is primarily driven by a declining fertility rate and increased life expectancy.

He noted that the fertility rate has dropped from 4.9 children per woman in 1970 to just 1.6 in 2022, while life expectancy has increased by 10.9% for men and 11.8% for women, reaching 72.5 years for men and 77.4 years for women by 2023.

Despite rising life expectancy, Mohd Uzir said the sharp decline in fertility presents a significant challenge.

Fewer births, influenced by higher education levels and delayed marriages, have led to a smaller proportion of younger individuals in the population.

The gross birth rate has fallen from 32.4 per 1,000 people in 1970 to 12.9 per 1,000 people in 2022.

The total fertility rate, at 1.6 in 2022, is well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain a stable population.

In 2001, the average age of mothers at their first childbirth was 26.6 years; by 2022, it had risen to 27.9 years.

As life expectancy increases, partly due to advancements in healthcare, sanitation, and food safety, the number of senior citizens still working has also risen.

In 2023, about 444,900 Malaysians aged 60 to 64 were still employed, and this number is expected to grow.

Mohd Uzir said policymakers must adapt to ensure that the ageing population is adequately supported, both in terms of healthcare and economic opportunities.

Looking ahead, he emphasised the importance of developing policies that prioritise the well-being of the elderly while ensuring sustainable population growth.

“There needs to be short-term and long-term population policies on the elderly, considering population dynamics in terms of size, distribution and location.

“Development programmes must focus on monitoring the specific needs of older citizens, especially those aged 60 and over,” he added.

He said it is crucial to maintain the functional capacity of the elderly population so that they can lead healthy and fulfilling lives.