Don’t take Perikatan’s 80% support claim lightly, say analysts

PETALING JAYA: The Perikatan Nasional claim that it can get up to 80% of the votes, especially among Malay voters in the upcoming state elections, may seem outrageous but some analysts believe it is no idle boast.

After the coalition’s performance in the 15th General Election, where it emerged as the second largest political bloc with 74 parliamentary seats, mostly with Malay voters, experts admit that Perikatan enjoys widespread support.

Surveys in March and April by Ilham Centre found that strong support by Malay voters for Perikatan has not changed significantly. This trend could see the coalition making inroads into the Pakatan Harapan strongholds of Selangor and Penang, say analysts.

In GE15, the coalition managed to bag between 55% and 60% of the Malay vote, said Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar, displacing Umno as the Malays’ long-time party of choice.

In a separate analysis, political scientist Dr Bridget Welsh also found that Perikatan parties Bersatu and PAS surpassed Umno in terms of Malay support.

PAS and Bersatu had garnered 59% and 48% of support among Malay voters respectively in the seats they contested, while Umno only managed 32%, said Welsh, from Nottingham University-Malaysia.

Umno’s allies in the unity government – Amanah, DAP and PKR – only managed to gain 12%, 14% and 14% respectively of the Malay vote.

Hisomuddin said this trend was likely to repeat itself in the state elections this year and could result in Perikatan making significant gains in Penang and Selangor.“In about 33 of the 56 state seats in Selangor, Malays make up 60% or more of voters. If Perikatan can maintain the support it had in GE15 and increase it, it can win in Selangor,” Hisomuddin said.

In Penang, Malay voters make up the majority in 15 of its 40 state seats. The two states are currently controlled by the Pakatan coalition, which is now working with Umno and Barisan Nasional, as allies in the unity government.

Perikatan leaders, including its chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, have expressed confidence in taking Selangor and rocking Penang.

Muhyiddin had, in fact, claimed that support for Perikatan could be between 70% and 80%.

“We got (the voters) views from our research. In Selangor, it looks like we are ahead,” he said.

However, another political scientist Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the GE15 sentiments would not necessarily carry over into state polls, given the recent political developments.

It could be affected by the fact that Perikatan leaders, including Muhyiddin, have been dragged to court over allegations of abuse of power and money laundering. Bersatu’s party accounts have also been frozen.

“It’s hard for the GE15 sentiment to persist or increase because perceptions will change due to these cases,” said Awang Azman of Universiti Malaya’s Malay Studies Institute.

At the same time, the unity government’s image may be boosted by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s popularity, work ethic and charisma, he added.

A Merdeka Centre survey released in January showed that Anwar had a 68% approval rating, with 54% of respondents giving the government a thumbs up.

“Anwar’s approach will have an impact and increase the government’s popularity. The government also has the upper hand when it comes to campaigning as Bersatu’s accounts have been frozen,” he said.