‘Fair weather can turn foul’

On dangerous ground: Squatters in Kampung Forest, Sandakan, Sabah, are at high risk of being hit by strong waves each time there is an extraordinary high tide phenomenon. — Bernama

PETALING JAYA: The floods may have eased up in Terengganu, Kelantan and Pahang, but the public has been reminded that the country is not out of the woods yet as the northeast monsoon season is still ongoing.

As long as the northeast monsoon is not over, the potential for continuous heavy rain still exists, said Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Muhammad Helmi Abdullah.

Continuous heavy rain could potentially happen anywhere during the monsoon, but the more vulnerable areas would be in Johor, western Sarawak and eastern Sabah, he said when contacted yesterday.

“A specific weather forecast for Chinese New Year will be released three days before the Chinese New Year date,” he said.

The Lunar New Year falls on Jan 22 and Jan 23, 2023.

Climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang said the country is currently still in the northeast monsoon season which typically lasts until the end of February or early March.

In a northeast monsoon season, about five episodes of cold surges are experienced, said the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Earth Sciences and Environment Department chairman.

Cold surges are strong winds blowing in the north-easterly direction from Siberia and crossing the South China Sea towards the peninsula.

As they blow over the South China Sea, they collect moisture and this fuels heavy rains in Peninsular Malaysia, particularly in east coast states like Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Johor, said Prof Fredolin.

That leads to a higher risk of flooding.

“Heavy and continuous rain, of course, will trigger widespread and major flooding like what we are experiencing now and in past years,” he said.

The floods can also get more severe when there are other factors or climate drivers, he added.

“Occasionally, present at the same time during cold surges, we can also have the active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that would increase moisture convergence over the peninsula.

“At the same time, the presence of a La Nina, which also increases moisture convergence in the region, will increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall events and floods,” he said.

He also said since the country is still in the northeast monsoon period, it is possible that there will be episodes of cold surges and the presence of active MJO that can cause heavy rainfall and flooding.

“Of course, high tides during continuous heavy rainfalls would also increase the likelihood of flooding,” he added.

The recent flooding experienced in east coast states was due to a cold surge, possibly strengthened by the presence of an active MJO Phase Three to Four, he said.

He also said the La Nina event has been a bit unusual as it has been there for the last three years in a row.

“This year we still have a La Nina event that causes moisture to converge over our region. Typically, a normal La Nina would live for only about a year or so,” he said.

As at noon yesterday, the National Disaster Management Agency (Nadma) recorded a total of 704 flood victims in Terengganu, Sabah and Kuala Lumpur.

This is a sharp drop from the over 64,000 victims recorded by Nadma just a week ago on Dec 22, when floods ravaged the east coast states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang as well as parts of Johor and Perak.