Raya travel depends on six factors


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PETALING JAYA: Balik kampung for the Hari Raya break may be a reality if Malaysians continue to strictly adhere to the SOP and risk assessments on the Covid-19 situation in the country show positive signs, says the Health Ministry (MOH).

The six factors in risk assessment on whether interstate travel should be permitted are the current daily cases, infectivity rate, ICU capacity at hospitals, current Covid-19 situation involving infected health workers, and the overall screening tests.

“The MOH will review all data and facts before advising or recommending to the technical committee for decisions at the special meeting of the National Security Council, ” it said, noting that the risk assessments were made from time to time.

In a Facebook post yesterday, the ministry noted that new cases were showing “a downward trend even though inconsistent”.

“However, it is still too early to tell, ” it said.

Health experts believe that there are other aspects that should be taken into consideration before allowing people to balik kampung.

“The Health Ministry’s assessment did not specify the reference rate for daily cases or infectivity rate, ” said medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman.

From a public health’s point of view, an acceptable rate may mean fewer cases of active and new daily cases which are within one to two digits and consistent across 14 consecutive days.

Based on previous trends of Covid-19 cases in the country, she said the country had seen SOP violations when interstate travel was allowed, which led to a spike in infections in December 2020.

“Risk assessment may be helpful to open the gate for economic and tourism reasons but not for balik kampung, ” she said.

With the availability of vaccines, Dr Malina proposed the government wait for the second phase of the vaccination programme involving the vulnerable group to be initiated first before considering allowing nationwide interstate travel.

“Based on recent data from the Health Ministry, some 69% of deaths related to Covid-19 infections involved those who are 60 years old and 89% of them have underlying health conditions.

“If most of our vulnerable group has received vaccines and cases reduce to one to two digits daily, then interstate travel can be allowed although personally, I prefer this to be done one to two weeks after Hari Raya, ” she said.

Dr Malina urged caution as the pandemic was still a threat.

“All decisions should be considered thoroughly to avoid any possibility of a fourth wave, ” she said.

Referring to a statement by Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah that interstate travel would only be allowed once 70% to 80% of the population is vaccinated, Universiti Malaya epidemiologist Prof Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud said such a decision should be driven by evidence and not targets.

“If we want to use evidence as the basis, then evidence of increasing immunity would be needed like a decline in new infections as vaccination is rolled out across the country.

“If we were to rely on evidence of vaccinations working from elsewhere, evidence of a decline in new infections in the elderly can already be seen in the United Kingdom after many in the older age groups have been vaccinated with a single dose, ” he said, noting that about 50% of British adults had received at least one dose of the vaccine.

He expressed his concern on the reduced testing of Covid-19 contacts by the ministry since January.

“This means we do not really know the real extent of infections in the community, ” he said.

Public health expert Datuk Dr Zainal Ariffin Omar said interstate travel could be allowed in the near future unless Covid-19 transmission came from community clusters or community events.

“The community and authorities need to make informed decisions, as well as prompt actions based on the current situation, ” he said.

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