THE political winds may have seemingly shifted in Washington following the United States’ midterm elections, but the direction of American foreign policy is unlikely to change significantly while President Donald Trump remains in the White House.
Despite the Democrats gaining control of the Congress, the president retains considerable authority over foreign affairs, with major changes potentially having to wait until the 2028 presidential election, experts tell Sunday Star.
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute visiting senior fellow Stephen Olson says that while Democrats would be able to block parts of Trump’s domestic agenda, the president would continue to exercise considerable authority over foreign affairs.
“The Democrats will control Congress, but Donald Trump will still be sitting in the Oval Office.
“While a Democrat-controlled Congress will be in a position to block elements of Trump’s domestic agenda they disagree with, the president has wide discretion over the conduct of foreign policy,” he says.
Olson says presidents facing a Congress controlled by the opposition party have historically turned their attention towards international affairs.
“This is why lame duck presidents facing a Congress controlled by the opposition party typically turn their attention to foreign affairs.
“The loss of Congress is unlikely to produce any dramatic shifts in the way the US deals with the rest of the world.
“That will have to await the outcome of the 2028 presidential election,” he says.
Meanwhile, Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principal adviser Oh Ei Sun says that Congress would have some influence over American foreign policy, particularly through its control over government spending.
He cites US involvement in conflicts involving Iran and the wider Middle East as an example of where lawmakers in Congress could exercise their authority.
“Regarding US policy towards Iran and the Middle East, Congress has some sort of purse-string powers.
“For example, if Trump asks for more money to fight the wars, they might not approve,” he says.
However, Oh says the overall direction of American foreign policy would remain largely determined by the president.
“Otherwise, it’s still very much a president-driven foreign policy,” he says.
Looking beyond Trump’s remaining term, Olson says the midterm results could have longer-term implications if they signalled a decline in the political movement associated with the president.
Trumpism, he says, has already reshaped America’s international role, particularly in trade, with negative consequences for several countries, including Malaysia.
He also does not expect the US to return to its previous position as a leader of the rules-based international system.
“While the US is unlikely to resume its former role as leader of the rules-based global system, if the midterm losses signal the beginning of the end for Trumpism, that will hold implications for Malaysians in the years to come,” he says.
