A WEAKENED Trump administration is hoped to adopt a less confrontational and less domineering approach towards the Middle East and Asean.
Geostrategist and senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research Prof Dr Azmi Hassan points out that the recent US midterm elections result has landed President Donald Trump in a position where might not be able to make rash decisions.
“When the (US) administration was discussing about geopolitical or economic matters with Malaysia and other Asean nations, they were quite, I would say, arrogant in terms of wishing they want their way.
“So I’m hoping that with the loss of Congress, Trump’s approach - whether it’s an economic decision or economic discussion with other nations, especially Asean nation - will be toned down in terms of their forceful way during discussion.”
Azmi also suggests congressional pressure could moderate Trump’s foreign policy, particularly on issues involving Iran, Israel and Palestine. He points to signs that Trump has softened his rhetoric on Iran and has voiced support for expanding humanitarian aid into Gaza.
“So come January (when the new senator-elects are sworn in), there will be pressure, especially on foreign policy, even if Trump has the last word on the foreign policy.
“Could the result lead to any changes? Yes, I think, especially towards Middle East, not only regarding Iran, but also the Palestinian issue, because during the (midterm) election, Trump has said that aid to Israel that amounted to US$4bil (RM16.8bil) will be stopped.
“On Iran, he had already said the war is over. In his capacity as the Board of Peace chairman, he wants Israel to open up the humanitarian aid to Gaza.
“So there is, in terms of policy changes, yes, we can see that slowly, a little bit, there is some differences in terms of his policy towards Middle East.”
Closer to home, Azmi expects future US dealings with Asean to become more consultative and less one-sided. Rather than Washington dictating terms, discussions could become more of a “win-win” exchange as they will become more receptive to Asean’s views and be more willing to listen during discussions.
Previously, discussions with the US tended to be one-sided, with outcomes generally favouring Washington.
“Going forward, however, engagements should continue through diplomatic channels, as I foresee a more balanced and mutually beneficial relationship. Therefore, there is no need for Malaysia to fundamentally revise its existing strategy.”
He also says over the next two years, Malaysia and other middle and smaller powers should take advantage of this situation.
“After January 2027, Washington and the White House will no longer have the same level of leverage or confidence they previously enjoyed. They may no longer view themselves as being in a position where smaller and middle powers must simply adapt to their preferences. As a result, discussions are likely to become more balanced and two-way, creating a more mutually beneficial, win-win environment.”
He stresses that middle powers, in particular, should capitalise on this opportunity.
“Over the next two years, not only will the president be a lame-duck leader, but he will also lack control of Congress. I do not believe there is any need for Malaysia to adjust or overhaul its foreign policy strategy.”
