Wishful thinking?: A billboard depicting MBS shaking hands with Trump under the slogan ‘We (Israel) are ready’ (for normalising relations with Saudi Arabia) in Ramat Gan, Israel. — AFP
AT the White House on Feb 4, US President Donald Trump told reporters the US should “take over” and redevelop the Gaza Strip with the help of Saudi Arabia, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he believes a peace deal between the oil-rich kingdom and Israel is “going to happen”.
The Saudi response was swift: reiterating Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s demands for an independent Palestinian state as part of any normalisation agreement, and rejecting the “infringement on the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people” or “attempts to displace” them from their land.
Trump has signalled that a grand Middle East bargain is a top foreign-policy priority, and MBS, as Saudi Arabia’s de-facto leader is known, sees the deal as an opportunity to get what he wants – namely a defence, technology and nuclear cooperation agreement with the US, according to people familiar with the situation.
But the US President’s repeated musing about moving two million Palestinians to a “good, fresh, beautiful piece of land” – which critics argue amounts to ethnic cleansing – is putting the prince in a tough spot.
Saudi Arabia’s young population has reawakened to the Palestinian cause amid Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, and their reaction to such a move – along with that of millions of Muslims in the region and around the world – could lead to instability.
“Trump thinks his inflammatory statements contribute to his supposed ‘art of the deal’, upping the ante to get to a middle position – something he has repeatedly done these past two weeks with Canada, Mexico and Colombia,” said Dr Bader Al Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University and an associate fellow at Chatham House (London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs think tank).
“But the Israel-Palestine conflict is different.
“The Saudi position on normalisation with Israel is loud and clear – Trump and his administration need to listen,” he said.
The US leader has pushed MBS to help drive down oil prices and pledge to invest US$600bil (RM2.7 trillion) in the US – which the prince is betting could help convince Trump to back a clear path towards Palestinian statehood, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because of the topic’s sensitivity.
MBS knows that a deal lacking those concrete steps would spell trouble for him at home and in the region, added the people. And it will be difficult for him to make major concessions after calling Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide” in November and vowing in September, and again on Feb 5, that a deal would have to include a two-state solution, according to a person familiar with his thinking.
Among MBS’s biggest concerns is Saudi Arabia’s young people, who make up more than 60% of the population, and like many others across the Middle East, have seen Palestinian support surge amid the war.
Netanyahu’s government, meanwhile, has pledged that Palestinian statehood can never happen.
“Given how important the Palestinian issue is to the Saudi public and how much death and destruction Israel has inflicted in both Gaza and the West Bank, I think Riyadh will proceed very cautiously with these talks,” said Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Some observers have speculated that MBS could accept a watered-down version of a pathway to statehood if the US meets most of his core defence, security, investment and technology demands, given his focus on economic development.
In a speech at the Atlantic Council think tank last month, then-secretary of State Antony Blinken said “most of the heavy lifting for normalisation is complete”.
That would include designating Riyadh as a treaty ally, cooperating on defence to enhance military coordination and integration, helping the kingdom develop a civil nuclear programme and a trade and investment agreement.
Saudi Arabia has already invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the US, according to its Finance Minister, and has in recent years – with mixed results – sought to attract American businesses and multinationals to move to or open Middle East headquarters to create jobs.
But Saudi officials made clear in meetings in Washington this week that steps towards statehood were a mandatory condition, according to a person familiar with the meetings.
They said the kingdom can only benefit from any normalisation-driven investment boom if there’s peace, the person added.
“We cannot have a normalisation with Israel without a solution for the Palestinians – and the solution for the Palestinians is a state, that’s very clear,” Saudi Ambassador to the UK, Khalid Bandar al Saud, said in an interview last week.
“We are happy to continuously engage in processes with anyone but we do have some red lines.”
Netanyahu was the first foreign leader to meet Trump in the Oval Office in the latter’s second term, amid concerns that the complex Gaza ceasefire agreement brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt may not hold up.
It’s been in place since Jan 19 and has seen a phased release of Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners freed, but remains fragile. Talks on extending the six-week truce got underway this week.
Trump on Feb 4 said the Abraham Accords launched in his first term – which saw Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and others forge diplomatic ties with Israel – would be expanded soon to include Saudi Arabia and others. He also claimed that the Saudis were not demanding a Palestinian state.
“It really is a big economic development transaction,” said Trump, referring to a comprehensive peace deal. “I think we are going to have a lot of people signing up very quickly.”
MBS first floated the idea of a normalisation pact in meetings with pro-Israel Washington think tanks in Riyadh in late 2022 and early 2023, and former US president Joe Biden’s administration nearly sealed the agreement before the Oct 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the Gaza conflict. Saudi Arabia suspended talks one week later, as Israel’s retaliatory invasion ramped up.
Now, as normalisation is back in discussion, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have called for a resumption of the war, which has killed over 47,000 Palestinians and destroyed much of Gaza, and an expansion of military operations in the West Bank. The death count doesn’t distinguish between combatants and civilians.
They’ve argued that Israel must eradicate Hamas but a continued Israeli assault would make normalisation even more difficult.
Among MBS’s biggest concerns is Saudi Arabia’s young people, who make up more than 60% of the population, and like many others across the Middle East, have seen Palestinian support surge amid the war, added the person familiar with his thinking who asked not to be named in order to speak freely.
MBS has counted on their buy-in to forge ahead with his ambitious Vision 2030 economic and social transformation plan, which involves trillions of dollars in spending to expand Saudi Arabia’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil.
Although MBS has challenged the population with unpopular decisions like imposing a hefty VAT and expropriating land for his mega projects, the Palestinian issue raises the real prospect of instability, according to regional analysts.
In 2024, Saudi authorities arrested some people who posted on social media attacking Israel over its war in Gaza and criticising any potential normalisation amid regional fears that Iran and Islamist groups could exploit the conflict to incite a wave of uprisings, according to Riyadh-based diplomats.
Then there is Teheran, Saudi Arabia’s longtime regional rival.
While MBS has moved quickly to take advantage of the weakening of Teheran and its allied militant groups post Oct 7, he’s reluctant to make any abrupt moves on normalisation that may jeopardise a détente with Teheran signed in 2023, according to the person familiar with his thinking.
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Farhan has repeatedly warned that the continuation of Israel’s war and the absence of a two-state solution will only embolden extremists who have sought to weaponise the Palestinian cause.
Hamas has previously said that one of the reasons it launched the Oct 7 attack was to stop Saudi-Israeli normalisation efforts that were moving forward under the Biden administration. – Bloomberg
