Ecowatch: A predictable disaster looms

This World Meteorological Organisation graphic shows how Malaysia will get less rain than usual when El Niño arrives, affecting agricultural production, especially padi.

THINK about the last time you left rice on your plate. Now think about the fact that rice prices have just hit their highest (in June 2026) since early 2025, and that the conditions driving those prices are not going away. In fact, they are going to get considerably worse.

A super El Niño is building in the Pacific. Forecasters at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Japan Meteorological Agency now put the probability of a moderate-to-strong El Niño establishing by this Northern Hemisphere summer at above 70%. Some models point to an event comparable to the catastrophic episodes of 1982, 1997, and 2015.