While the price of green coffee – the kind that roasters buy to make their own ground coffee – has soared by almost 80% over the past year, its worldwide consumption is set to rise even further. This is notably being driven by changing habits in a country that has traditionally been associated with tea: China.
This is undoubtedly one of the consequences of the evolution of Chinese society, which has undergone profound economic change over the last 20 years, epitomized by a nine-fold increase in GDP per capita over the last 25 years. According to the French Ministry of Finance, this has lifted some 745 million people out of poverty. As such, consumption patterns have changed, bringing new habits that were not necessarily traditionally associated with the country, such as drinking coffee.
China has been a land of tea for millennia. It produces a number of highly sought-after teas, such as the famous pu-erh produced in Yunnan Province. This fermented tea can fetch several hundred dollars a kilo, especially when aged for 15 years or more. Although tea is still the country's primary beverage, coffee drinking has surged, rising by almost 150% over the last 10 years, reports the agricultural magazine Réussir.
This trend can be measured by the number of bags imported. According to forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China's coffee consumption is expected to reach 6.3 million bags (60kg per bag) in 2024/2025. This compares to around two million in 2014/2015. Over the last decade, imports have tripled.
The presence of coffee in the new consumption patterns of the Chinese population is not the only novelty. Coffee lovers are showing a preference for quality coffee, in line with the same trend seen in Europe, where specialty coffee is filling new coffee shops, popular with consumers prepared to pay more for their morning fix. High-quality coffee accounts for 60% of China's imports.
It is estimated that global coffee consumption will rise by 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million for 2024/2025.
Like Europe, China relies on Brazil to source its coffee. And that's no easy task, given the global warming that is drastically undermining the coffee industry. Severe droughts have seriously reduced Robusta and Arabica harvests in the last season. As a result, the coffee market is becoming tense, both in terms of demand and climatic disruption. Europe is the world's biggest coffee consumer, and demand is set to increase by 6% this year.
"Despite this reduction in stocks and Brazilian exports, the EU's coffee needs should remain largely satisfied, thanks to the diversity of its sources of supply and the maturity of its market. The EU seems well positioned to maintain a stable supply, even in a context of increased competition,” reassures the agricultural publication. – AFP Relaxnews
