Due to ageing populations around the world, the number of new cancer cases are set to rise sharply, researchers say. — dpa
A major new report suggests that the number of new cancer cases worldwide will increase sharply by the middle of the century, rising from 18.5 million cases in 2023 to 30.5 million in 2050.
The team, who published their findings in The Lancet journal on Sept 29 (2025), says that this is mainly due to the ageing of societies, as older people are more susceptible to cancer.
If a standardised age structure is used for calculations, the relative incidence of cancer will fall by 5.7% between 2024 and 2050.
Almost 42% of the 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 are attributable to factors that can potentially be changed, reports the international research group led by Assistant Professor Dr Lisa Force from the University of Washington in the United States.
The researchers used the framework of the Global Burden of Disease project to make estimates for the period from 1990 to 2023.
They also produced a forecast for further developments from 2024 to 2050.
Developments have varied greatly around the world to date.
Between 1990 and 2023, the age-standardised number of new cancer cases fell by 3.4% in high-income countries and by 8.8% in upper-middle-income countries.
In contrast, the number of cases increased by 28.6% in lower-middle-income countries and by 23.6% in low-income countries.
The biggest risk factor that can be changed in most countries is tobacco use, which was attributed to 21.4% of cancer deaths.
In low-income countries, unprotected sex poses the greatest risk, mainly because it can transmit the human papillomavirus (HPV), which causes cervical cancer.
According to a study recently published in the journal Eurosurveillance, vaccination against HPV is very effective.
In Germany, the authority in charge of vaccinations, known as Stiko, recommends HPV vaccination for girls and boys aged nine to 14 years.
In a commentary also published in The Lancet, Associate Prof Dr Luo Qingwei and Assoc Prof Dr David Smith from the University of Sydney in Australia praised the study’s comprehensive global approach and systematic analysis.
However, they criticised the lack of data quality and availability in many countries.
“With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to established risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet and high blood sugar, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives, alongside improving accurate and early diagnosis and treatment to support individuals who develop cancer,” said study co-author and University of Washington emeritus professor Dr Theo Vos.
“Reducing the burden of cancer across countries and worldwide demands both individual action and effective population-level approaches to reduce exposure to known risks.” – By Stefan Parsch/dpa
