PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s export boom has further room to run, underpinned by structural shifts in global supply chains rather than a temporary trade rebound, according to BIMB Securities Research.
The research house has forecast the exports of goods to grow 15.8% in 2026 despite an already commendable first-half (1H) performance that has exceeded expectations.
In its thematic report, the research house said export growth is increasingly being fuelled by artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investments, data centre (DC) expansion, China Plus One manufacturing relocation, supply-chain diversification and stronger intra-Asean demand, reinforcing Malaysia’s competitiveness as a regional manufacturing and logistics hub.
It projected exports to expand 15.8% this year, supported by a robust re-export growth of 50.7% and domestic export growth of 5.5%.
However, the forecast may prove conservative after exports surged 27.5% year-on-year in the 1H of 2026, driven by a 59.2% jump in re-exports and a 19.5% increase in domestic exports.
Imports also strengthened with a 17% rise, although the improving trade balance suggests that domestic manufacturing exports continue to underpin economic growth.
“Malaysia’s export sector has entered a new phase of expansion driven by a combination of strong external demand, continued trade rerouting activity and deeper integration into regional supply chains,” the report said.
It added that the current export upcycle is not solely a function of short-term trade diversion, but reflects enduring structural changes that should keep external trade as an important contributor to Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth through 2026.
Although BIMB Research expects some moderation in the 2H as front-loading effects ease and global demand normalises, it believes net exports will remain a key contributor to second-quarter and full-year economic growth.
The manufacturing sector – particularly electrical and electronics (E&E) and refined petroleum – is benefiting from AI-related investments, a more stable tariff environment and precautionary inventory building, while a recovery in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports provides additional support.
The report noted that re-exports now account for more than a quarter of Malaysia’s gross exports, reflecting deeper integration into regional supply chains.
However, domestic exports remain the main source of trade surplus, domestic value creation and GDP growth, with the widening trade balance indicating that higher-value domestic manufacturing continues to strengthen.
Machinery and transport equipment remains the country’s dominant export engine, accounting for 53.5% of total exports in the 1H of 2026, up from 43.6% in 2019.
Electrical machinery emerged as the standout performer, supported by demand for semiconductors, AI infrastructure and DCs.
Telecommunications equipment, specialised industrial machinery and automotive exports also posted robust gains, reflecting supply-chain diversification and resilient regional demand.
Beyond E&E, BIMB Research identified manufactured articles as an increasingly important growth pillar.
Medical devices, precision instruments and miscellaneous manufactured products recorded strong expansion, highlighting Malaysia’s move up the value chain.
The report also pointed to petroleum and LNG exports as an additional upside catalyst, with stronger re-export activity reinforcing Malaysia’s role as a regional energy trading and refining hub.
On the equity front, BIMB Research highlighted beneficiaries across multiple sectors.
Its preferred export-related stocks include Sime Darby Bhd
, Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd, Farm Fresh Bhd, Pharmaniaga Bhd, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, IOI Corp Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and MISC Bhd, reflecting opportunities spanning manufacturing, energy, plantations, healthcare, consumer products and logistics.
