PETALING JAYA: Analysts are maintaining their respective calls on CIMB Group Holdings Bhd
, stating that for its upcoming results, its profit before tax (PBT) could be lower amid rising risks to net interest margin (NIM) guidance.
RHB Research told clients that the bank’s second quarter ended June 30 (2Q26) PBT could be marginally lower year-on-year on a net interest income drag, but tick up quarter-on-quarter on higher operating income.
“We estimate this could bring first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) profit after tax and minority interests to track about 47% to 48% of our and consensus financial year ending Dec 31, 2026 (FY26) – so a catch-up in the second half will be required, with CIMB pointing to healthy loan pipelines.
“We expect it to declare a total interim dividend per share (DPS) of 26.3 sen (3.4% yield) for the quarter, which includes a 5.8 sen capital return special DPS,” the research firm said in a report.
Additionally, RHB Research is keeping a “neutral” call on the stock with a target price of RM8.35. At last look, it was RM7.70.
It said rising risk to NIM guidance is due to NIM headwinds in Indonesia on funding cost pressures, while the repricing of loans has been challenging, given the competitive pressures.
“Also, CIMB had bulked up on domestic liquidity in anticipation of stronger loan pipeline drawdowns in the 2H26,” it added.
These will put near-term NIMs under pressure, with 1H26 NIM likely coming in at the lower end of the NIM delta guidance of plus or minus five basis points, RHB Research said.
However, it noted that the management seems more positive on 2H26 NIM outlook as loan pipeline drawdowns take place, and liability optimisation initiatives are implemented in Indonesia and Singapore.
On liquidity, CIMB and its peers have been competing strategically for certain tenor buckets while cutting rates across others, it said, adding that on the whole, retail deposit competition was stable, but wholesale rates have ticked up
An analyst told StarBiz that he remained positive on CIMB’s earnings outlook but cautioned that NIMs in its Indonesian market remained a concern.
RHB Research noted that CIMB saw some decent legacy recoveries from markets such as Indonesia.
“Together with some of its previous trade-related overlays maturing in 2Q26, management sees opportunities to reallocate, and set aside some pre-emptive buffers for segments such as low-income retail, small and medium enterprise and non-retail borrowers without adversely impacting its 25 to 35 basis points credit cost guidance.”
Public Investment Bank noted that CIMB’s loan growth remained healthy on a sequential basis, likely driven by strong wholesale loan pipeline in Malaysia and Singapore.
However, the management remains cautious on the Indonesian market, where commercial lending and auto financing growth are expected to moderate.
It added that in anticipation of a robust loan pipeline and seasonally tighter liquidity conditions in 2H26, CIMB has proactively built-up liquidity to optimise funding cost, thereby reducing further need to compete aggressively for deposits during the year-end.
