PETALING JAYA: Gamuda Bhd
’s earnings are expected to pick up in the fourth quarter of financial year 2026 (4Q26), and likely achieve consensus’ RM1.05bil forecasts for FY26, as the group’s construction segment ramp up progress billings in 4Q26.
UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research said Gamuda is well positioned to deliver 25% to 30% earnings growth in FY27 to FY28, backed by a compounding order book and deepening exposure in key markets.
Nonetheless, the research house said the group’s current record-high order book requires more time to be digested into exponential earnings delivery in FY27 to FY28, as 90% of the outstanding order book has yet to reach peak execution (75% are in early stages).
“We expect these projects to begin charting accelerated progress billings only in FY27 to FY28, which are already well mirrored in our earnings growth forecast of 25% to 30%.
“Our FY26 order book replenishment assumptions of RM20bil to RM25bil (about RM12bil year-to-date) are likely achievable,” UOBKH Research said in a report.
The research house added this is as it anticipates key projects including Penang-Perak Water Infrastructure (about RM4bil), Negri Sembilan data centres (RM2bil to RM3bil each; potentially one more), Northland Corridor highway in New Zealand (about A$4bil tender), Sunshine Coast Railway in Brisbane (A$1bil to A$1.5bil) as well as the drawdown from Taiwan’s Xizhi-Donghu MRT (about NT$60bil/RM8bil).
“Locally, Gamuda may also secure the tunnelling packages for MRT3 (lowest bidder for CMC 303 tunnelling before a re-tender) following the completion of landbank acquisition by 4Q26,” UOBKH Research said.
The research house noted that Gamuda has secured RM25.1bil in orders in FY26 thus far, lifting the outstanding order book to a record-high RM52.3bil.
It added that assuming a RM4bil quarterly order book burn rate, Gamuda has to secure another RM8bil to RM13bil to meet management’s order book guidance of RM50bil to RM55bil by end 2026, which UOBKH Research said will likely be fulfilled by several tender outcomes that are pending finalisation.
UOBKH Research said for the property segment, it expects a lumpy sales recognition in 4Q26 although FY26 sales target has been revised downwards to RM4bil (from RM5.5bil) due to a delay in the Hanoi project’s approval.
Gamuda’s property sales for the nine-month period of FY26 were only RM2.1bil, indicating that roughly RM1.9bil sales will be recognised in the upcoming 4Q results.
Meanwhile, UOBKH Research said Gamuda has officially signed the letter of appointment for the Northern Perak Water Supply Scheme (NPWSS) project last week.
“Gamuda is forming a 50:50 joint venture (JV) with Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Perak to undertake the project, which has a 40-year term and is targeted to start by 2032.
“NPWSS is designed to transfer 1,500 million litres per day (mld) of raw water with 300 to 500 mld raw water sold to Penang. Based on the bulk supply charges of RM1.1507 to RM1.9178 per cubic metre, the charges are around RM210mil per year, while Gamuda’s recurring revenue is about RM105mil annually (50% JV share),” the research house said.
UOBKH Research said there will also be an engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning contract for NPWSS which will be formally awarded later.
