PETALING JAYA: BIMB Securities Research maintains its automotive sector’s full-year 2026 total industry volume (TIV) forecast at 740,000 units.
This implies a steady sequential recovery through the second half of the year (2H26).
In a report, the brokerage firm said it expects May and June 2026 volumes to normalise downward as order backlogs dissipate, before stabilising in the third quarter of 2026 (3Q26) and recovering more meaningfully in 4Q26 on seasonality and promotional tailwinds.
“On balance, the 740,000-unit forecast remains achievable, though it requires the market to sustain an average monthly run rate of approximately 61,000 units over May to December, roughly in line with the underlying trend but with limited buffer for further macro shocks,” BIMB Research noted.
Despite the 2H26 macro backdrop remaining uneven, supportive factors include 4% to 5% gross domestic product growth providing a solid floor, alongside stable loan approvals underpinned by overnight policy rate stability, ensuring financing accessibility for buyers.
According to BIMB Research, Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd’s (Perodua) stronghold in the sub-RM80,000 segment, supported by strong brand equity and service network depth, should sustain high single-digit volume growth.
Meanwhile, Proton’s momentum from electrified models, particularly the e.MAS lineup, positions it to capture rising electric vehicle (EV) appetite among value-conscious buyers.
Bermaz Auto Bhd
’s (BAuto) Mazda3 has demonstrated sustained consumer resonance, and the progressive volume ramp up of XPeng G6 and X9 provides a differentiated growth layer heading into financial year 2027.
BIMB Research also noted Sime Darby Bhd’s Motors division benefits from EV distribution exposure in Singapore, while the medium to long-term outlook for its industrial segment remains intact on structural Australian mining demand.
On the EV front, the brokerage expects penetration to continue rising through 2H26, potentially reaching 8% to 10% of TIV by year-end.
From a policy risk perspective, BIMB Research noted that any delay or acceleration in fuel subsidy rationalisation remains the principal binary catalyst for near-term sector sentiment.
It sees the most attractive risk-reward in Sime Darby with a “buy” call at a target price of RM2.60 per share. It has “hold” calls on both BAuto and MBM Resources with a target price of 88 sen and RM5.28, respectively.
