SEOUL: As the focus moves away from the Iran war, investors and strategists alike are looking for the next leg up in equities. Many are turning to Asia.
Shares in South Korea and Taiwan have rallied the most in the world this month, with the surge in the Kospi index taking it up 78% for the year.
The two markets have been key beneficiaries of the euphoria surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), thanks to the growing dominance of giants Samsung Electronics Co, SK Hynix Inc and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Equity-derivatives strategists are increasingly recommending trades to bet on more gains, just as traders chasing the rally push up the cost of options.
The result: Implied volatility for stocks in Taiwan and South Korea is rising along with those markets.
It’s now hovering around peak levels versus the S&P 500 Index for both the Taiex and the Kospi 200 Index, with the Cboe Volatility Index sinking back below its one-year average.
“The strength of the move is producing extreme reversals from prior trends,” said Jun Gyun, a derivatives analyst at Samsung Securities Co, referring to the South Korean market,” he added.
“That’s creating the “vol up, spot up” pattern, which could last for “some time, until a period of consolidation emerges.”
Tech and AI are back with a vengeance, leaving behind markets such as India, which is heavily dependent on oil, has low exposure to AI and a currency near a record low.
Its S&P BSE Sensex Index, down 9.3% this year, is the world’s second-worst performer.
South Korean shares have been so in demand that Interactive Brokers Group Inc started giving US retail investors direct access to the market.
Meanwhile, the assets under management for leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surged to a peak, and they’re likely to grow further as authorities have approved the local listing of those for single stocks, according to a recent JPMorgan Chase & Co report that said the products keep the risk of “flow-driven overshoots alive”.
Jun sees long-gamma strategies tied to rising volatility as favourable for South Korean equities in the near term.
Looking out three months or longer, he said traders should consider building short-gamma exposure in anticipation of a volatility peak.
At Societe Generale SA, strategists noted that the 12‑month variance spread between the Kospi 200 and S&P 500 has reached extreme levels.
Yet, a meaningful reversal would need a “more benign” oil and geopolitical environment and a pause in the tech rally, conditions they don’t see happening in an “orderly manner” now, they wrote in a report where they said they don’t advise positioning for this scenario.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan strategists recommended bullish structures on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, expecting the equities will continue to outperform given the AI theme, a more supportive macro backdrop and strong fundamentals.
Ahead of the upcoming summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, where AI policies are poised to be key points, investors boosted bullish positioning in US-traded Chinese ETFs, buying call spreads on the iShares China Large-Cap ETF and calls on the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF.
Separately, JPMorgan strategists led by Tony Lee advised call spreads on the Taiex or worst-of calls on the Taiwanese gauge, the Kospi 200 and Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average to bet on the AI hardware rally.
“US large-cap tech, South Korean memory and component suppliers, and Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem are all showing the same pattern – earnings delivery remains strongest where exposure to AI hardware bottlenecks is highest,.
“Hardware remains the earnings backbone of the AI theme, and Taiwan remains its most efficient index level proxy,” the strategist wrote in a note. — Bloomberg
