Indonesia's rupiah hits record low in worst day since September; Asian stocks pull back


FILE PHOTO: An employee counts Indonesian rupiah banknotes in Jakarta. — AFP

The Indonesian rupiah fell sharply to a record low of 17,315 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, as elevated oil prices due to the Iran war, and persistent fiscal and governance worries drive foreign investors away from the Southeast Asian country.

Emerging market Asian currencies were broadly weaker against the U.S. dollar: the Philippine peso slipped to 60.524 per dollar for the first time in more than two weeks, and the Thai baht fell to 32.44 per dollar, the lowest since April 8.

An MSCI gauge of global EM currencies inched lower to a seven-session low.

Asian countries, especially the net energy importers such as Indonesia, India, the Philippines and Thailand, have been hard hit by the Iran war as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have kept oil prices elevated for a prolonged period.

In Indonesia, the rupiah fell 0.7% in what could be its steepest one-day drop since September 9, when a sharp selloff was triggered by the abrupt ouster of influential finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

"The sharp weakening in IDR today looks like the result of a combination of pressures hitting at the same time: unresolved war risks, renewed oil pressure, Indonesia-specific sovereign and fiscal concerns, and still-fragile foreign positioning," said Josua Pardede, chief economist at Permata Bank.

"If talks between the U.S. and Iran truly restart and oil falls in a sustained way, IDR can recover. But if peace remains elusive and energy prices stay high, the currency will remain one of the easiest places for the market to express concern about Asia's oil-importing economies."

Bank Indonesia on Wednesday vowed to go all out to defend the "undervalued" currency and said it stood ready to adjust its policy as necessary to provide stronger support for the rupiah and keep inflation in check.

The rupiah has lost more than 3% since the war began in late February, making it the second-worst-performing Asian currency this year after the Indian rupee.

In the Philippines, the peso slid to its lowest since April 6 ahead of the central bank's monetary policy meeting later in the day.

A Reuters poll showed that the Philippine central bank would keep its interest rate unchanged as policymakers look past supply-driven price pressures from a global oil shock.

Elsewhere, the Indian rupee weakened past 94 a dollar for the first time in April, while Malaysia's ringgit slipped to an eight-session low.

STOCKS WHIPSAWED

Equities across emerging Asia deepened their losses in afternoon trading: the MSCI EM Asia gauge scaled a record high before pulling back as stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks sapped risk sentiment.

Stocks in Singapore fell 1% to their lowest since April 7, while those in Indonesia lost 1.5% in what could be their weakest session since April 2.

Thai stocks fell 1.5% to their lowest level since April 7. Volatility was most pronounced in South Korea and Taiwan.

The KOSPI touched a record high above 6,500 points before falling 1.7% at one point. It then recovered to trade 0.6% higher by 0511 GMT.

Taiwan's benchmark stock index also scaled an all-time high of 37,971 points, but was last trading largely flat.

Market participants are keeping a close watch on the Middle East developments amid a lack of progress towards renewed peace talks that has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Yield on Indonesia's 10-year bonds jumps 4.9 basis points to 6.687%

** Bank of Japan seen dropping hawkish signs even as it keeps rates steady

** Saudi Arabia, Philippines to join JPMorgan emerging market bond index in 2027

** South Korea's Q1 GDP growth roars past market on booming AI-driven chip demand - Reuters 

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