TORONTO: As China’s annual two sessions get underway, climate governance is widely expected to be embedded more deeply into economic planning as the country enters the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030).
Officials have signalled a gradual shift from energy-intensity targets toward a “dual control” system that combines total carbon emissions and intensity indicators.
Analysts also expected continued reform of the power system, expansion of the national carbon market beyond the electricity sector, and stronger integration of climate adaptation into urban planning.
Joshua Busby, a professor of public affairs at the University of Texas, who previously served as a senior adviser for climate at the US Department of Defence, said China’s policy continuity provides an important contrast with the United States.
“China has a more consistent policy environment for climate policy than the United States, which has seen partisan oscillation in climate policy across several administrations,” Busby told China Daily.
In Washington, he said, Democratic administrations have adopted climate policies, while Republican administrations have “walked away from those commitments”.
“The current US administration is the most extreme version of that policy orientation and is seeking to permanently undermine the legal, scientific and institutional foundations of US climate action,” he said.
He added that this “will damage the country’s ability both to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate impacts”.
He said commitments in states such as California offer “some hope for subnational variation”, but described the overall federal trajectory as unstable.
China formally submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions at the end of 2025, committing to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels by 2035.
The pledge comes as policymakers seek to align industrial upgrading, energy security and decarbonisation under the new planning cycle.
When it comes to coal, Busby said there is “hope that China can transition coal as a source of flexible back-up power that runs only when needed and that renewables and storage become the leading sources of electricity generation”.
“The pursuit of grid modernisation may help in this regard,” he said.
Beyond domestic reform, Busby said China’s international engagement carries growing weight.
China has continued to participate in multilateral climate negotiations in recent years. — China Daily/ANN
