KUALA LUMPUR: Apex Securities Bhd is maintaining its cautiously optimistic stance on Malaysia’s trade outlook, and believes that the trade momentum will sustain after January’s strong export print.
In a statement today, the firm said the outlook is underpinned by a steady global growth backdrop, resilient United States (US) demand and robust global semiconductor growth amid the artificial intelligence-led tech upcycle.
"That said, the recent export surge may partly reflect low-base effects, with growth likely to moderate in the second half of 2026 as last year’s higher base kicks in.
"Furthermore, global trade conditions remain fluid, with tariff developments, geopolitical tensions and a firmer ringgit posing uncertainties to the outlook,” it said.
Therefore, Apex Securities maintained its 2026 export growth forecast at 4.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) and 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast at 4.7 per cent for now, pending greater clarity on the tariff developments.
"On the monetary front, we see no urgency for Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to adjust the policy rate amid still-fluid trade dynamics, with BNM likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach,” it added.
Apex Securities views the slowdown in capital goods imports (+2.3 per cent y-o-y; Dec: +27.1 per cent) as a temporary breather, with infrastructure rollout and data centre expansion keeping investment momentum firm in 2026.
"We forecast steady investment GDP growth of 9.3 per cent y-o-y in 2026,” it said.
Meanwhile, Apex Securities expects intermittent volatility after US President Donald Trump imposed a 15 per cent global tariff for 150 days, as trade terms are renegotiated and alternative tariff pathways are activated.
"Domestically, potential semiconductor tariffs remains the key risk for Malaysia, particularly as the Trump administration shifts toward alternative tariff pathways.
"The 15 per cent rate is slightly lower than Malaysia’s previous 19 per cent reciprocal tariff. That said, the administration has indicated it will utilise the 150-day window to issue other ‘legally permissible’ tariffs,” it said.
The firm said one likely option is to concurrently pursue Section 301 of the US Trade Act as a negotiation lever, noting that although it requires a lengthy US Trade Representative (USTR) investigation process, it has no limit on tariff rates and allows measures to remain in place for up to four years.
"The US retains sufficient leverage to pressure trading partners into trade deals similar to the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) to avoid renewed trade tensions. As such, we do not expect the ruling to materially change the global trade landscape,” it said.
Trump was reported as saying that he would raise the global tariff to 15 per cent from 10 per cent, following a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down most of his earlier trade measures.
In a post on Truth Social on Saturday, he said that the increase, to be imposed under Section 122, would take effect immediately and would be over and above existing tariffs. - Bernama
