Maybank Investment Bank Research anticipated sequentially stable NIMs and still buoyant NOII in the second quarter.
PETALING JAYA: A muted pre-tax profit growth and a miss on loan expansion –such expectations reflect analysts’ views ahead of CIMB Group Holdings Bhd
’s second-quarter results announcement next week.
While the market generally expects the second-largest bank by asset to deliver “decent” earnings in the April to une 2025 period, RHB Research said it is unlikely to yield any major surprises, positive or negative.
“On the flipside, year-on-year (y-o-y) pre-tax profit growth could be muted. Watch out for signs of strong capital build up.
“CIMB reiterated it does not intend to hang on to excess capital and remains open to opportunities to optimise its capital,” it said in a note.
Should the capital build-up pan out better than expected, for example due to weak loan growth, RHB Research said CIMB might issue special dividends.
The bank has done this in the past.Another option is to undertake share buybacks, given the correction in share price.
Separately, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research said CIMB’s net interest margin (NIM) would likely remain stable in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25), with a stronger non-interest income (NOII) and steady net credit cost.
It also flagged a potential miss on loan growth.
According to the research house, lending remained cautious amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, a trend carried over from 1Q25.
Consequently, the non-retail segment (business banking and wholesale) has adopted a wait-and-see approach, pending greater clarity on trade tariffs.
“Despite this, we anticipate continued growth momentum from the consumer and commercial small and medium enterprise segments, driven by loan drawdowns.
“Headline growth for the wholesale segment is expected to be moderate due to ongoing, albeit easing, pricing competition and the bank’s deposit-led strategy.
“Overall, while we expect loan growth momentum to be similar to 1Q25 (1.8% y-o-y), this may fall short of management’s full-year guidance of 5%-7%.
“Broad operational trends in 2Q25 are performing to expectations and thus, our financial years 2025-2027 forecasts were retained.”
Looking ahead, HLIB Research said the management anticipated NIM expansion in Malaysian operations over a 12-month horizon, thanks to its proactive decision in May to lower campaign and board deposit rates, ahead of the latest overnight policy rate cut to 2.75%.
As for NOII, HLIB Research said the momentum in the second half of 2025 is expected to be driven by underlying transactional growth and enhanced cross-selling efforts.
Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Research anticipated sequentially stable NIMs and still buoyant NOII in the second quarter.
“Moreover, asset quality remains stable, and credit cost is likely to have been benign. The second quarter appears to be a decent one for CIMB,” it added.
