Trade data
WITH limited economic data scheduled for release this week, attention will centre on May 2025’s external trade statistics, providing investors with insight into trade performance.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research estimates that Malaysia’s trade performance in May 2025 will show a moderation in export growth to 5% year-on-year, down from 16.4% in April.
Import growth is also expected to ease to 9% year-on-year, compared to 20% in the previous month.
As a result, the trade surplus is projected to increase slightly to RM5.7bil, up from RM5.2bil in April.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations, Malaysia’s balance of trade is projected to reach RM11bil by the end of this quarter.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to release its international reserves as at June 13 on Friday.
China data releases
CHINA is expected to release a slew of data this week including industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate and money supply for May 2025.
ING expects China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment to remain broadly stable, with a slight bias toward moderation.
The lingering effects of the earlier peak-tariff period continue to weigh on the economy.
China’s loan prime rate is set to be announced on Friday, and it is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month.
According to Bloomberg estimates, China’s retail sales are expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, slightly down from 6.1% in April, while year-to-date growth is projected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.
Industrial production is estimated to increase by 4.9% year-on-year in May, compared to 5.1% in April, with year-to-date growth expected at 4.8%, up from 4.7% in the previous month.
Monetary policy
BANK Indonesia (BI), the Taiwan Central Bank and the Philippine Central Bank (BSP) are expected to announce their monetary policy decisions this week.
According to a Bloomberg poll, out of the eight analysts surveyed, five expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%, while the remaining three anticipate a 25 basis point cut to 5.25%.
ING expects BI to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.5%.
Inflation remains well contained, and the rupiah has been relatively stable, suggesting that there is still room for the central bank to consider rate cuts in the future, it said.
However, given the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path, ING does not expect BI to implement back-to-back rate cuts in June.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg poll shows that all six analysts surveyed expect BSP to cut the overnight reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points, from the current 5.5% to 5.25%.
